Chris Dixon: Al Dancer has lots in his favour in Paddy Power

The jumps racing is steadily creeping into my daily routine and I am really looking forward to working at Wetherby for Racing TV on Saturday.

Much of the focus will be on Cheltenham and the Paddy Power Gold Cup looks wide open. There are a few angles with those currently towards the top of the market but having mentioned the excellent form of Sam Thomas in this column last week, it’s his runner Al Dancer who I would make clear favourite at this point.

Third in the race last year, he is 5lb lower in the weights now and has a good record fresh, while the pace looks sure to be strong which would also play to his strengths.

Onto this week’s notebook horses and I have gone for a mixed bag from the flat and jumps, starting with a Nottingham winner who looks a smart prospect for next season.

Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute.

The maiden won by Desert Crown at Nottingham last week has an impressive roll of honour, with both Space Blues and Mishriff featuring on the list of recent winners.

Desert Crown obviously has a long way to go to reach their level but it was impossible not to be impressed by this son of Nathaniel who looked a smart prospect for next season.

Never far away, he always moved comfortably through the race, but it was the way he powered clear through the final furlong that really impressed.

The time also compared favourably with the other maiden races on the card and he’s an exciting prospect for next term where he could be one to take in a Derby Trial.

Trainer: Alan King.

A 1lb drop in the weights for an encouraging chase debut from Valleres at Newbury last week looks a lenient move by the assessor and Alan King’s six-year-old looks likely to take advantage soon.

He impressed with the way he travelled into the race and really caught the eye as he moved up on the outside turning into the straight but just looked a bit one paced from two out in a race that perhaps tested pace a little more than was ideal for him.

Softer ground at this trip and/or a return to further (he was a winner on a testing surface over 2m6f in the spring) will see him in a better light and he should win races over fences this term.

Trainer: David Simcock.

Forge Valley Lad built on the promise of his first start for David Simcock with a half-length success at Chelmsford on Saturday night and should be capable of winning more races this winter.

In pulling a couple of lengths clear with a well-handicapped course specialist, he produced a career best performance.

That was achieved despite coming from what was probably further back than ideal over a trip that looks a bare minimum for him, and a 4lb rise means he’s eligible for the same grade next time.

Already a winner over further, he will progress for this yard once upped in trip and will be ideally suited by a fair pace, given his preferred style of racing.

Trainer: Nick Alexander.

Skipthescales was no match for a couple of improving horses at Kelso last week but plugged on for third to make a satisfactory return to action on what was his first start for this stable.

A well-handicapped horse on old form, there’s a good chance he’ll strip fitter this outing and, having dropped another pound in the handicap for the run, he’s now off a mark of 111 which makes him eligible for much lower grade races than the 0-130 he ran in here.

He’ll be of interest over three-miles plus on testing ground in a lower grade soon.

The closing race at Carlisle on Monday featured a few horses of interest for the grade, and with those horses coming to the fore, it appeals as a race that could work out well.

The race was won by Stolen Money who was having just his second go in a handicap, and the runner-up Fevertre is also unexposed and was strong in the market.

With a consistent and race-fit last time out winner back in third, and the potentially well-handicapped Niceandeasy in fourth on his return from 700 days off, there are reasons to be positive about each of the first four home, while some of those further down the field could also make an impact with a run or two behind them, and a switch to a less competitive race for the grade.