Can Scandinavia become Aidan O'Brien's greatest stayer?

Aidan O’Brien has trained a legion of champions over the past three decades but only a select few have been outstanding stayers.

Up until this year, indeed, Yeats and Kyprios had been his only horses to have won both the Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup.

O’Brien reinvented the pair after initially viewing them as potential Derby candidates. They were blessed with the speed, stamina and courage to realise his vision.

Neither ended up in the premier Classic before going on to prove dominant forces over longer distances.

Yeats won a record four successive Gold Cups between 2006 and 2009, plus plundered the two Goodwood Cups he contested. Back in his day, it was a Group Two.

The Sadler’s Wells colt also briefly looked like giving his trainer a cherished triumph in the Melbourne Cup but faded to finish seventh.

Kyprios pulled off the Gold Cup/Goodwood Cup double in 2022 and 2024, when he had flawless campaigns. His only defeats when tackling 1m 5f or more came at the backend of the 2023 campaign after he had missed the bulk of the campaign because of injury.

The son of Galileo ended his career having won 17 of his 21 races, eight of them at the highest level, with his international exploits including a jaw-dropping 20-length romp in the 2022 Prix du Cadran, when he hung all the way over to the stands’ side to get a closer look at his adoring fans.

Order Of St George, Fame And Glory and Leading Light have been other O’Brien Gold Cup victors, but none of this trio added a Goodwood Cup success to their CVs.

And now O’Brien has another shining light in the staying division in the shape of Scandinavia, who will seek to cement his status as the best around by landing a second Goodwood Cup next week.

He’s cut from a different cloth from Yeats and Kyprios, let alone his forgotten namesake, who O’Brien also trained back in 2004. The highlight for the first Scandinavia to be briefly housed at Ballydoyle came when landing a maiden at the Galway Festival.

The second Scandinavia is a much more polished model, but he has a long way to travel, quite literally, if he is to stamp himself as the greater stayer that O’Brien has had in his care (triple Champion Hurdle winner Istabraq can be in a debate for another day).

However, nobody can dispute he has made a flying start. He’s achieved more than Yeats and Kyprios at the respective stages of their lives plus, a little controversially, he is already rated higher than they ever were.

The foundations are firmly in place for him to scale even greater heights provided he can stay healthy and retain his zest for galloping extreme distances.

He became only the second three-year-old this century to win the Goodwood Cup 12 months ago, after Stradivarius in 2017, and his pulsating defeat of Trawlerman in the Gold Cup last month will long live in the memory. In between, of course, he dug deep to take the St Leger.

To add some perspective, Yeats did not run in a Cup race until he was 5, while Kyprios was 6 before he won second Gold Cups and Goodwood Cups. Scandinavia has got a big head start on the former and, good health permitting, will have multiple opportunities to, at the very least, match the latter.

Whereas Yeats and Kyprios were heading down one path before being re-routed, Scandinavia has always been heading in one direction.

The Justify colt was beaten in each of his three maidens he ran in over a mile as a juvenile before making the most of a straightforward opportunity on his return over ten furlongs at Navan last year. He probably did not get the credit he deserved that day, but a flashing beacon went off at RaceiQ heaquarters in Kennington.

His winning time was adjudged 5.06sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par, and he got a glowing Time Index of 9.8 when the meeting average was 7.0.

When he lined up in the Queen’s Vase, at Royal Ascot a month later, he had an official rating of 90 and went off at 16-1 with Ryan Moore, who had tellingly never ridden him at that stage, preferring the prospects of Shackleton, his much shorter-priced stablemate.

Moore was proved right – Shackleton was fourth with Scandinavia a neck behind in fifth – but that was the day that Scandinavia backed up what the clock said at Navan and gave us all a big clue as to his potential as a stayer.

He was up with the leaders early on, then lost places and threatened to drop away (he was almost slowest of all through the sixth furlong) before rallying and being beaten only a length and a half in the only renewal of the Queen’s Vase to have ever been run in under three minutes.

The data revealed that Scandinavia was in his element, being quickest of all in the final furlong.

Wayne Lordan must have referred to him being slightly on/off the bridle post-race because, since then, Scandinavia has always been equipped with the brown cheekpieces that match his colour. Their exact importance is unknown, but he has never been beaten in them, and O’Brien adheres to the golden rule of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. 

Scandinavia trounced four rivals under Moore in the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket the following month, when pouring it on at the finish. The final three furlongs were devoured in 36.14sec, which was 1.19sec quicker than anything else (the equivalent of about eight lengths).

Lordan was back on board for the Goodwood Cup as Moore preferred his rugged stablemate, Illinois, who had been runner-up in the Gold Cup the previous month and previously placed in three other Group One contests.

Illinois started favourite and had the advantage of being allowed to boss ordinary fractions, too, but Scandinavia always had him in his sights and was the quicker of the pair through each of the final five furlongs. That enabled him to win by three quarters of a length, with the most solid of yardsticks, Sweet William, another two and a half lengths back in third. Illinois has never been the same horse since, part of his spirit seemingly crushed that day.

Classic glory followed in a soft-ground St Leger, when Scandinavia showed that he was prepared to win ugly. He fended off the late challenge of Rahiebb by a neck under Tom Marquand, with Moore and Lordan required for other big-race action at Leopardstown.

Those who felt the fast-finishing runner-up was unlucky – he was 0.55sec quicker (about three lengths) through the final two furlongs – overlooked just how much Scandinavia had invested in the middle part of the race, when he put together a sequence of “fast” or “par” sectionals.

RaceiQ rated the winning time 4.39sec quicker than their Par for such conditions, with the Time Index being 8.9 when the meeting average was 6.9. More speed. More stamina.

Scandinavia has kept up the good work this year, gaining workmanlike wins against inferior opposition at Navan and Leopardstown – much like Kyprios before him – before that rousing Gold Cup when he wore down Trawlerman, the champion stayer of 2025, in the final strides to win by a head.

There was just 0.3sec between the warriors over the final five furlongs with a titanic duel up the straight developing into a final furlong shootout.

It briefly looked like Trawlerman would fend off a rival half his age, but Scandinavia pulled out a bit extra to break his heart. He was 0.19sec quicker in the final 220 yards and that made all the difference.

Depending on your viewpoint, William Buick either gave Trawlerman a peach of a front-running ride or should have turned the screw from further out.

Twelve months earlier, he had set searching fractions and the opposition were run into submission. A record time was achieved. However, on that occasion, he was sitting on an in-form, race fit ally with no question marks hanging over him.

Last month was different, and he opted for less aggressive tactics. That was perhaps predictable given his partner had been absent since the autumn plus had some well-documented issues in the build-up.

Buick had a different hand to play and set slower fractions before gradually winding things up. Plenty were still taken out of their comfort zones, but Scandinavia was the exception.

The winning time was 3.51sec slower than a year earlier; so, in the region of 20 lengths.

Had Buick asked for more earlier then Trawlerman might have kept galloping and possibly broken Scandinavia’s resolve. Or he might have hit the wall and had an even harder race in defeat.

We will never know for certain. What we do know is that in the past year Scandinavia has improved in chunks, reflected by his official rating soaring to 124. O’Brien has never had a stayer rated higher.

Whether he quite merits that rating is questionable, given he had been on 117 before his Gold Cup success. Trawlerman went into that race with a career-high mark of 121 and the eight-year-old might not have been at his peak after his travails. Yet he now sits on 122.

They did pull clear of Sweet William, although he was perhaps not at his best and has since been retired.

Trawlerman could have another crack at Stradivarius next week, but will have his work cut out turning the tables over hald a mile less. He would have been in his element in the early editions of the Goodwood Cup, which were staged over three miles.

Kyprios was never rated higher than 122 but the most prolific Group One winner that O’Brien has trained became well known for keeping something in the pump for another day, other than that extraordinary occasion in France when he briefly developed a taste for the exotic.

The handicapper seemed to overlook that performance in his subsequent 344 days off the track. Seven of his other victories were gained by a length or less.

Yeats also stalled at 122, with his time at the top coinciding with a period when the staying division lacked depth. He was not invincible, either, suffering five odds-on reverses along his journey, but his longevity was enviable. Not many horses have the appetite to gallop for ten miles at Royal Ascot in mid-June and come out on top every time, even if habitual runner-up Geordieland was often waiting for him there.

Order Of St George and Fame And Glory earned peak ratings of 124, at least as stayers, but Leading Light, like dramatic Long Distance Cup winner Kew Gardens after him, never punched so high.

Stradivarius was not trained by O’Brien, but it would be remiss not to mention a horse who won three Gold Cups and four Goodwood Cups in this conversation. He hit a mark of 125 after his ten-length Gold Cup romp in 2020.

Scandinavia will have to go into similar “repeat to fade” mode if he is also to be remembered as an all-time great. Racing fans like their stayers to be exactly that. Year after year of grit, determination and the ability to overcome whatever new challengers or adversity are thrown at them. It’s how reputations are forged over Jumps.

O’Brien could do with a boost after getting a rare, bloodied nose at The Curragh’s Juddmonte Irish Oaks over the weekend.

His 21 runners were all defeated, including 12 at a single-figure odds and five at 2-1 or shorter. The master trainer also broke new ground for the wrong reasons, being responsible for the last four home in the headline race of the weekend.

He’s never had fewer than a dozen winners in July in Ireland going back to 2008, but has only three on the board this time.

A second Goodwood Cup victory for Scandinavia would help get the show back on the road and go some way to removing any doubt that several tough battles for the colt over the past 12 months have dimmed his desire to be leader of the pack.

And beyond that, who knows how far he can rise. 

Races over 1m 5f+ = 7 

Wins over 1m 5f+ = 6 

Group One wins = 2 

Highest official rating = 124 

Races over 1m 5f+ = 19 

Wins over 1m 5f+ = 11 

Group One wins = 7 

Highest official rating = 122 

Races over 1m 5f+ = 17 

Wins over 1m 5f+ = 15 

Group One wins = 8 

Highest official rating = 122 

Races over 1m 5f+ = 11 

Wins over 1m 5f+ = 5 

Group One wins* = 1 

Highest official rating* = 124 

Races over 1m 5f+ = 7 

Wins over 1m 5f+ = 5 

Group One wins = 2 

Highest official rating = 118 

Races over 1m 5f+ = 18 

Wins over 1m 5f+ = 12 

Group One wins = 4 

Highest official rating = 124 

Races over 1m 5f+ = 5 

Wins over 1m 5f+ = 3 

Group One wins* = 1 

Highest official rating = 120