Dave Nevison's Saturday tips: "he could be very well-in"

Cerulean Bay arrives here in top form and looks to have a favourite's chance in this competitive York handicap.

He ran very well in the Hunt Cup at the Royal meeting last time when he was second home up the middle of the track away from the favoured stands rail.

Previous to that, he was a neck second over this course and distance and didn’t enjoy the best of runs either.

The son of New Bay looks to be improving with age and looks set to land a decent handicap such as this at some point this summer.

As ever in this top-class handicap there are a handful of contenders who might have aspirations beyond handicap company. Raammee is definitely one of those and he could have most going for him.

He is the lightest raced runner in the field, but has been progressing with each of his runs. After a winning debut, he then followed up with a 12-length victory in a Novice, and this season, he has run extremely well in two hot Sandown handicaps, most recently finishing really well after initial greenness to be beaten half a length over a mile.

Roger Varian’s runner is still learning and will hopefully have benefitted for that effort. He should do better over this further two and a half furlongs. I feel he is much better than a 95-rated horse and could be very well-in.

Maybe because of this six-year-old''s less revered connections in a prestigious race such as this, Physique seems to have been overlooked by market makers which could be an error.

Micky Fenton’s gelding has gradually run himself back into form this season and won easily over course and distance last time out. He gets a 6lb penalty for the resounding three and three-quarter length win, but that still puts him on a lower mark than when he ran really well again over course and distance at the end of June last year.

He finished fourth in that race, two lengths behind Great Acclaim, and he has a 15lb pull with that horse.

I believe Physique has a clear chance here and trust that Grace McEntee, who gets on very well with him, will not push him too hard early in the race.

Alarm bells generally ring when a horse has a record of six second places from his nine latest runs on the Flat, but I find it difficult to fault Cruden’s attitude and think this two-mile handicap might  see him to finally deliver the win.

Up-and-coming trainer Dan Horsfall has engaged Rossa Ryan for this step back up in trip and those two factors look enough to tip the scales here.

Cruden has been staying on well in all three of his recent starts over 14 furlongs and a race such as this looks tailor made for him.