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3.00 Newmarket: Inner City Blues
Tipster: Ross Millar.
I think it’s reasonable to conclude that it was the combination of both slower ground and the additional furlong that saw Orthodox produce by far his most laboured effort to date when he only beating one home in the Prix Morny last time out.He will appreciate this sounder surface here, but I still have reservations about this trip with a stiff finish, and I think we will see him back sprinting next year. Both
Marco Polo and Confucius are below the usual standard that we normally associate with Ballydoyle representatives in this, so I’d be surprised if they are up to landing a Group One. The strongest Irish challenge will likely come from Push The Boat Out. He won a Group Three on his latest start, but the ground rode softer than officially described, and I’m not sure Carry The Flag, who finished second, produced the most robust opposition. My preference is for INNER CITY BLUES. He took a giant step forward to win the Group Three Kingdom Of Bahrain July Stakes on his latest start, despite racing keenly early on, proving value for more than the winning distance.
With his yard hitting the aforementioned top form, I’d be disappointed if he can’t account for some largely underwhelming rivals.
3.40 Newmarket: First Ambition
Tipster: RaceiQ nap of the day (Andy Stephens).
First Ambition is a son of multiple Group One winner Laurens (she was pretty handy on the Rowley Mile) but has been something of an underachiever since winning his first two starts on the all-weather, when trained by Karl Burke.
However, he’s slipped 8lb in the ratings in the past year; remains lightly raced; and it looks like a switch to Keady may have revived him.
First Ambition went off at 150-1 for a typically competitive handicap over 9f at Glorious Goodwood last month on his second start for the yard and caught the eye with his staying-on sixth, beaten about two lengths.
He had the third best Finishing Speed Percentage and that can be marked up, too, as he challenged out wide, whereas the principals stuck closer to the far rail.
The tough and consistent Shafdar finished just over a length ahead of him and is no bigger than 20- to win on Saturday. First Ambition meets him on 5lb better terms and is four times his price.
And then there is First Ambition’s latest run over 9f at Wolverhampton to consider.
It was only a Class 4 contest with none of the runners rated higher than 87 but it was strongly run and got a Time Index of 8.4 when the meeting average was only 5.5.
That makes it more interesting than most races run at the Midlands venue and First Ambition was again a big eye-catcher as he stayed on well for third from an unpromising position around the bend.
He ran as well as he could the way it unfolded, having the best Finishing Speed Percentage (106.35%) and hinting there was more in his locker. He was quickest of the dozen runners in each of the final three furlongs, sweeping him from eleventh into the frame.
The five-year-old is clearly in good heart and will think he is running loose with only 8st 3lb to carry.
Nicola Currie may have to skip breakfast to make that weight but she will relish having the chance of again shining on the big stage, while Keady has had a couple of winners in the past week after a barren spell.
Now all we need is for the horse to channel his inner Spanish Don.
3.40 Newmarket: Gavriel
Tipster: Dave Nevison.
I was so impressed by Gavriel, who immediately jumped to favourite for this annual cavalry charge, after winning at Ascot last time that I could not include him in my picks here.
The three-year-old son of Frankel is trained by John and Thady Gosden, and that probablaby gives him great credentials on its own, as comparisons to Halling, Pipedreamer and others come to mind.
He comfortably beat Balzac, another improver who has already scored since that run, and a 4lb penalty definitely doesn’t reflect his rate of improvement.
Gavriel has only had four runs, and is bred to be Group class plus will likely live up to that pedigree next season. However, for now, a mark of 99 is very lenient.
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3.40 Newmarket: Alcarath
Tipster: Graham Clark.
Alan King has already landed one major handicap this season following the victory of Daiquiri Bay in the Ebor up at York and Alcarath can add another by bagging the Cambridgeshire.
This gelded son of Acclamation ran well on his previous effort over course and distance on his return to action this season when finishing a close up fifth on ground that would have been lively enough for him.
It was only late on that he was picked up last time out over a mile and a quarter last time out at Sandown Park, which suggests that a drop back a furlong could be right up his street.
With a good draw to work from close to the rail in stall one, and the application of a set of cheekpieces, he looks worth siding with at a reasonable price.
4.00 Haydock: Mister Whippy
Tipster: Martin Dixon.
A host of winners have come out of the race in which Mister Whippy was runner-up at Newbury in August.
That was a particularly good effort, and it makes his opening handicap mark of 82 look very workable. On his most recent outing, over a mile on soft ground at Goodwood, he ended up a little too far out of his ground, and didn't quite last home over that longer trip.
Coming back in trip should be a positive, and with his opening mark looking very fair, he remains open to plenty of improvement.