Juvenile Watch: weekend review and a 2000 Guineas tip

We were treated to some top-class racing over the weekend as all three of the group one races for juveniles at Irish Champions weekend were won in spectacular style, as was the group two Vintage Stakes from Doncaster. Is it possible we saw the future winners of the 1000 Guineas, the 2000 Guineas and the Derby all in one weekend?

Desert Castle was relatively weak in the market ahead of this contest drifting from odds-on to even money. Yet those, that like me, overlooked his lack of experience never truly had a moments concern throughout the race.

Restrained from the stalls by Billy Loughnane he settled well at the rear of the field before making smooth progress down the outside with two-furlongs to run, he got to the lead without being asked as serious question and then lengthened clear when asked before hanging slightly left, as he had done on debut, in the closing stages.

This probably wasn’t the deepest Group Two but as with his debut win it’s the style perhaps more than the substance that impresses me so much. He reportedly heads to the Dewhurst next and that will certainly reveal more as it will most certainly contain a higher-calibre opposition. He’s now understandably favourite for the 2000 Guineas at a best price 6/1 that looks a very reasonable price given that, unlike major rival Aidan O’Brien, Charlie Appleby systematically has his juveniles ready to go for Newmarket in May.

Darkness Falls had shown significant progression when winning a maiden at the Curragh on his second start and took another sizeable step forward to land this newly framed group one. 

Racing in behind the leading group he travelled well and enjoyed the dream trip through, as rounding the home bend Ryan Moore allowed him to drift wide onto the track from where he made smooth and unrelenting progress, quickly mastering the overly keen Nola Soul before stretching further clear in the closing stages.

By Camelot out of You’resobeautiful who’s sole win came over five-furlongs his pedigree is an interesting mixture of speed and stamina. My instinct was that stamina was the prevalent attribute, so I was interested by Aidan O’Brien’s post race comment of “He’s a Camelot we thought was going to be a Guineas horse plus”. 

Of course his opinion on one of his inmates is far more relevant than mine but I’d be surprised if he had the raw pace for a Guineas.

My selection Nola Soul was disappointing, I’d said I would know my fate early and so it proved with his over exuberant early fractions meaning he had no chance of staying this extended trip. A hood may help as could racing with cover, though that might well be a double edged sword as by doing that you’d neutralise his main weapon which is his long stride. He’s talented but I’m losing faith and won’t be with him again until I’ve seen a more relaxed performance.

I suggested in the preview of this race that Sun Goddess was the best value even-money shot to line-up all season. She was admittedly eventually well supported into an SP of 4-7 and that price far more accurately reflected her dominance over this field.

Again, as she was at York, she was slowly away from the stalls and again she took a moment to get organised before delivering her challenge. But once into her stride she was simply devastating, quickly putting lengths between herself and the field with the extra-furlong bringing out even further improvement.

She’s now 3-1 favourite for the 1000 Guineas and she is comfortably the best filly we’ve seen this season, yet she can’t be offered as an ante-post selection given O’Brien’s reluctance to confirm whether her next assignment would see her drop back in trip for the Cheveley Park or stretch out in trip for the Fillies' Mile. Hopefully we’ll have clearer picture by this time next month.

Folsom Blues produced a minor upset to win this, although his defeat behind Sun Goddess in the Phoenix Stakes had received a form boost earlier in the afternoon.

Settled just in behind the leaders, who set strong fractions, he travelled with notable zest and had little trouble quickening to the front before finding another gear when rivals attempted to close from the rear.

This was by someway a standout performance in his career so far, and of course at this young age he’s open to any amount of improvement, though I just wonder whether he was at an advantage courtesy of an excellent bit of positional riding by Joey Sheridan, I’d certainly be surprised if connections felt that he’s genuinely six-lengths superior to stable mate and runner-up Monogram.

The latter named was again given a very relaxed ride as he had been on his debut, he looks like a big, raw, immature horse and showed plenty of inexperience when taking an age to find his stride up the home straight. He showed guts to battle to the line but I hope he’s better than he showed here. 

Folsom Blues will next be aimed at the Dewhurst for a possible clash with Vintage Stakes winner, Desert Castle.