Ombudsman v Constitution River: the ten vital factors
By Andy Stephens
Last Updated: Mon 10 Aug 2026
Like some of the best blockbuster movies, the Sky Bet Ebor Festival at York promises to start with an almighty bang.
One of the greatest meetings of the year spans four days but there’s no warming up or gentle throw downs. The heavyweights will be swinging hard halfway through day one.
Barring late banana skins, the £1.5 million Juddmonte International will feature a clash to savour between Ombudsman and Constitution River.
The A-Listers are unbeaten this season, already sharing four Group One triumphs between them. The former is the highest rated horse in the world, while the latter is second only to Bow Echo among the highest rated three-year-olds, having had less opportunities to show all his prowess.
They are owned and trained by giants of the game, with their trainers, John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien, adding extra spice with some of their verbal jousting in recent years. It’s England v Ireland, Godolphin v Coolmore, Ballydoyle v Clarehaven.
The bookmakers find it hard to spli them. Ombudsman is the general Evens favourite, with Constitution River no bigger than 6-4. Let’s take a closer look at their credentials.
Ghaiyyath was top rated when winning for Godolphin in 2020
1 - Official Ratings: Ombudsman’s 8lb edge
OMBUDSMAN 132 CONSTITUTION RIVER 124
Ombudsman will be the highest rated runner to contest the Juddmonte International since Frankel (140) lined up in 2012.
He’s on a career-high perch of 132 after his dazzling four-length win in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. Having sat on 127 or 128 for a year, the handicapper felt that performance was a clear personal best and warranted a 4lb rise.
And that augurs well. The record of the highest-rated runner in the International in the past decade reads 1222111111.
Ghaiyyath (127), Mishriff (124), Baaeed (128), Mostahdaf (128), City Of Troy (124) and Ombudsman himself (127) have all justified top billing in the past six years.
Constitution River must bridge an 8lb gap but has had less opportunities to express himself.
His mark of 124 is the same that another Ballydoyle inmate, City Of Troy, had before his superb all-the-way success in the 2024 renewal. He rose to 128 after that.
2 - Group One evidence and a 17-1 scoreline
OMBUDSMAN 66.66% WINS IN GROUP ONE RACES, CONSTITUTION RIVER 100%
Constitution River is two from two at the highest level after his victories in the Prix du Jockey Club and Coral-Eclipse this summer.
Ombudsman is seeking to become only the fourth two-time winner of the Juddmonte International, having already won two editions of the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. He also has a Dubai Turf victory on his CV.
However, he has also come up short in two top level contests, each time when favourite.
He lost out by a neck to the O’Brien-trained Delacroix in a thrilling Coral-Eclipse in 2025, plus had to settle for silver in last year’s Champion Stakes, when unable to get to grips with Calandagan.
What about the opposition who have been standing in their way?
Ombudsman has finished ahead of 17 Group One winners in all his races. By contrast, Constitution River has beaten only one.
3 - Ombudsman well up to Par
PAR FURLONGS OR FASTER: OMBUDSMAN 66.66% CONSTITUTION RIVER 56.09%
RaceiQ have five descriptions of every furlong run: very slow, slow, Par, fast and very fast. These are colour coded with blue being slow and red being quick.
Seventy-eight furlongs run by Ombudsman are in the RaceiQ database. These break down as: Very fast: 11 (14.10%); Fast: 11 (14.10%); Par: 30 (38.46%); Slow: 20 (25.64%); Very Slow: 6 (7.69%).
So, overall, Ombudsman has run Par or faster in 66.66% of his logged furlongs.
Meanwhile, there are 41 furlongs run by Constitution River in the database. These break down as: Very fast: 5 (12.19%); Fast: 15 (36.58%); Par: 3 (7.31%); Slow: 11 (26.82%); Very Slow: 7 (17.07%). In other words, he has run Par or faster in 56.09% of his races.
Naturally, the overall pace of a race plays a crucial role here, but the marked difference in Par furlongs is notable.
They are Ombudsman’s stock in trade, whereas Constitution River has generally dealt in anything but the middle ground. He’s either fast (48.77%) or slow (43.89%).
The Eclipse, below, provided a perfect example. And keep in mind that 1sec generally equates to about six lengths.
His first six furlongs were all quicker than Par by some margin: 0.35sec, 0.72sec, 0.56sec, 0.41sec, 0.5sec and 0.54sec.
But his last four furlongs were all slower than Par by some way: 0.6sec, 0.62sec, 1.01sec and 0.83sec.
He was taking fast and slow to an extreme that day.
Ombudsman’s highest top speed has been 41.13mph, which he clocked in the seventh furlong at York 12 months ago. Constitution River has topped that, hitting 41.91mph at The Curragh last year, although that was in a 7f race.
4 - The evidence of the clock
Constitution River had the clock watchers drooling when winning the Dee Stakes at Chester in May. He won in a time 5.12sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par, getting a Time Index of 9.9 when the meeting average was 8.2.
However, the ground was officially “good” when it was almost certainly quicker, so whether he was 30 lengths ahead of what might be expected is dubious. Even so, it was the quickest Dee Stakes ever run and a mighty show of force.
Likewise, his Coral-Eclipse victory was also backed up by the clock. He won in a time 1.72sec quicker than Par, with the Time Index: 8.1 when the meeting average was 6.3.
Ombudsman gave us an early hint of what he was about when winning on his debut at Newmarket more than two years ago. He won in a time 2.63sec quicker than Par, with the Time Index being 9 when the average was 7.8.
But his standout effort on the clock was in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2025 when he won in a time 2.42sec quicker than Par. The Time Index that day was a glowing 9.3 when the average was 7.8.
No gelding or colt has won the race in a quicker time.
5 - How Ombudsman turns up his after burners
Both horses usually average about the same numbers of strides per second in their races. They have hovered in the region of 2.29.
However, one notable difference is Ombudsman’s ability to turn up the volume when it is demanded.
For instance, at Royal Ascot last time, when better than ever, he hit a maximum frequency of 2.53 strides per second in the penultimate furlong.
In the previous furlong he had managed 2.39, and in the final furlong it was the same.
But the mechanics in between were working at full capacity. He found a 5.85% boost in power, essentially the difference between a very good racehorse and an exceptional one.
Ombudsman's ability to increase his strides per second when required helps set him part. Above, his graphs for last year's edition of the International plus the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. Below, Constitution River's strides per second in the Eclipse. He began fast, as the race demanded, but ended slow. The graphs take into account the average stride patterns top three finishers over the same course and distance.
Buick has the luxury of knowing what is under the bonnet, and why he didn’t panic when his mount was still 2.74sec (about 16 lengths) behind the leader (his pacemaking stablemate Devil’s Advocate) with two furlongs to run that day.
He had also hit 2.49strides per second at the meeting a year earlier and boasts three other instances in Britain where he’s managed 2.42 or higher. It’s what gives him his race-winning acceleration.
Half a mile from home in the Juddmonte International last year, he was 4.48sec (about 27 lengths) behind the front-running, Birr Castle, who it looked had stolen things. But Ombudsman hauled him back and ended up beating him by four lengths
Constitution River can stretch out a bit further in terms of the maximum length of his stride, but, up to now, has been unable to match those strides per second stats.
He peaked at 2.34 in the Dee Stakes, and 2.38 in the second furlong of the Eclipse. Has not gone in for wild fluctuations, not that it has done him any harm.
Above: When Ombudsmen and Constitution River have hit their peak strides - plus the top speeds they have managed
6 - Avoiding the early red zone. . .
FINISHING SPEED PERCENTAGES OF 100% OR MORE: OMBUDSMAN 8/8 CONSTITUTION RIVER 4/6
The data confirms that Constitution River has done something that Ombudsman has not: won a race run at savage fractions.
He achieved that in the Coral-Eclipse last month when his Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 95.35% revealed he was "eyeballs out" and slowing down at the finish.
But he still moving faster than anything else after the sectionals for the first six furlongs had been a relentless mix of “fast” and “very fast”. His FSP “form” figures read 21121.
By contrast, Ombudsman’s Finishing Speed Percentages have varied between 101.22% and 111.60%. His FSP form figures read 111131211.
There was a true gallop in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes last year, but Ombudsman began with two “slow” furlongs as William Buick sat off the gallop. The combination did the same in this year’s edition, too.
Indeed, Ombudsman has not recorded anything faster than a “Par” furlong in the first five furlongs on his past six races in Britain. In his last five, he’s not unleashed his fastest furlong until at least a mile has passed.
For instance, in last year’s dramatic renewal of the International he let fly with a 10.94sec split in the eighth furlong.
Buick tucks him away in rear, just keeping his purring engine ticking over for those explosive endings.
The last time Ombudsman recorded a “fast” furlong in the first half mile of a race in Britain was in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes last season, when he finished second. That defeat was attributed to him needing the run, but maybe it was a factor.
Ironically, Ryan Moore, who will partner Constitution River next week, rode him that night. Buick has been on board ever since.
Team Ballydoyle will almost certainly want to make Ombudsman do something he does not normally do in the early exchanges: run fast. Draw him into the red zone and see if it blunts his biggest weapon at the business end.
However, this will be easier said than done. Buick will not want to deviate from Plan A and will have trust in his partner’s ability to cut down rivals when it matters most, however much of a head start he has to give them.
7 - How the pacemakers may shape what happens
Which brings us neatly onto the role of the pacemakers plus possible front-runners.
Devil’s Advocate will be in the race to set an honest tempo for Ombudsman. He performed that function for him at Royal Ascot last month, as he did in the Champion Stakes in October, although he unwittingly also helped Calandagan that day.
O’Brien’s other entries include Action, who has forced the pace in the Derby, Irish Derby and King George on his past three starts, plus Hawk Mountain and Causeway, who usually run from the front.
Flushing Meadows set a strong gallop for Constitution River in the Dee Stakes and the Coral-Eclipse but would need to be supplemented to repeat the role.
Perhaps the most interesting of O’Brien’s front-running candidates is Hawk Mountain, who finished three lengths third to Constitution River in the Eclipse, having been runner-up to him in the French Derby.
He’s not far off being perfect in carrying the first leg of the baton. And he’s not the kind of horse that Buick would have the luxury of giving too much rope to.
8 - Proven track craft
YORK FORM: OMBUDSMAN 1 CONSTITUTION RIVER 0
Ombudsman proved his effectiveness at York when landing last year’s edition of the Juddmonte International.
Constitution River will be having his first race at the track, which is left-handed and flat.
His Group One victories have been on right-handed tracks – Chantilly and Sandown – but he had no trouble whizzing around Chester’s left-hand turns in May.
9 - The race to 20mph
Every little counts, and Constitution River’s gate speed may count for something by the finish.
He was fastest to 20mph when winning the Futurity Stakes at The Curragh last year, laying the foundations for him to make all, and was second fastest to 20mph in the Dee Stakes and Eclipse. It took him 2.54sec in the latter.
Ombudsman is encouraged to take his time from the stalls, with Buick eager to anchor him in rear.
His 0-20mph form reflects this and reads 76615346. The outlier was when pinging the gates in the Eclipse last year and taking just 2.31sec to hit 20mph.
That led to some unwelcome early issues for his rider and eventually the combination were beaten. It’s an odd concept, but Buick will not want a fast start.
10 - Gosdens and Buick exceed market expectation at York
The RaceiQ Actual versus Expected metric measures market expectations. Anything above a score of 1 is a positive, and vice versa.
John and Thady Gosden’s A/E at York over the past year is 1.65 (nine winners from 26 runners), whereas Aidan O’Brien is on 0.68 (two from 16).
In other words, the Gosden runners have managed 65% more winners than statistically expected, whereas O'Brien has yielded 32% less than expected.
Meanwhile. William Buick’s A/E at the track is 1.86 (12 winners from 37 rides), while Ryan Moore’s is 0.88 (four from 26).
CONCLUSION
Ombudsman has established himself as among the best ten-furlong horses we have seen this century, looking at the peak of his powers at Royal Ascot last time.
But there’s no knowing where the ceiling is for the two years younger Constitution River, who will get 7lb from him through the weight-for-age scale.
My own preference is for Ombudsman, who has been there, done that and got the T-shirt.
But let’s just hope the pair turn up with their A Games and are locked together a furlong and a half from home. And that, from there, the best horse wins.
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