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RaceiQ: How Darkness Falls beat the odds in Dewhurst

Last Updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026

Andy Stephens takes a closer look at an enthralling Dewhurst plus studies the victories of Musical Times, Drumbeat and Montreal at Newmarket's two-day Future Champions meeting.

The Weather Gods threw a bit of everything at the Dubai Future Champions Festival. But mostly they threw wind.

Musical Times sailed close to it; Aidan O’Brien threw caution to it; and anyone who backed Saffie Osborne’s 696-1 double on Friday could be forgiven for finding themselves four sheets to it.

Thankfully, the elements did not spoil a vintage edition of the Darley Dewhurst Stakes, featuring an eagerly awaited first clash between Desert Castle, who began the day favourite for the 2000 Guineas, and Darkness Falls, who headed the Derby market.

It was the latter who prevailed by a neck after a great tussle, rewarding the audacity of connections with a colt who had never previously run over a trip shorter than a mile. This was a record-breaking ninth Dewhurst for Aidan O’Brien, achieved in unconventional fashion.

The perceived wisdom, naturally, was that he was going to need an attritional race to beat Desert Castle, who had seemingly not come out of second gear to win the Champagne Stakes, and Great Barrier Reef, his stablemate, the Coventry winner.

Instead, the ground was drying out quickly and the tailwind was consistently blowing between 16 and 19mph, with gusts of more than 30mph. And the pace in the first half mile, relatively speaking, was nothing special, with RaceiQ assessing that the runners combined to chalk up 15 “slow” sectionals and five “par” furlongs.

The Dewhurst sectionals

To add more perspective, Darkness Falls completed those first four furlongs in 48.48sec. Later in the afternoon, the 82-rated Midgham Man took 48.51sec to cover the same terrain when landing the nursery over the same trip (hindsight tells us that he was clearly well treated and might continue to be even after being reassessed).

Collectively, this should have been a grim scenario for Darkness Falls. After all, he had impressed when winning a strongly run nine-furlong Golden Fleece on his previous outing, when pouring it on at the finish. By contrast, Desert Castle, had eased clear at the end of a slowly run Champagne Stakes, over the Dewhurst trip.

But Darkness Falls was equal to the task, finishing off with three swift splits of 11.24sec, 10.96sec and 11.78sec. Desert Castle pinched tiny fractions in each of those furlongs – overall he was 0.13sec quicker – but the winner was always holding on in the closing stages and, if you look closely at the replays, you will notice he even pricks his ears entering the final furlong, as if hearing a mate shout out among the riveted stands.

Darkness Falls stopped the clock at 82.47sec, the second fastest time ever run in the Dewhurst and just 0.10sec slower than record holder U S Navy Flag in 2017, when he led home an O’Brien 1-2-3-4. There was a strong tailwind that day, too, with Withhold also winning the Cesarewitch in a record time later on the card.

By way of more immediate comparison, Gewan won the Dewhurst in 83.39sec 12 months ago, at the main expense of Gstaad, when the ground was officially good to firm, good in places. Gewan was 0.59sec slower over those final three furlongs (in the region of three-and-a-half lengths) despite racing on going that was officially quicker.

Having won in such taking style at Leopardstown last time, when running through the line in 111.73sec, this was some achievement by Darkness Falls however you want to slice it.

“What is there to say, when every dream just fades away, in half a minute,” sang Matt Bianco in their jaunty 1984 hit, but half a minute here or there seems to make no odds to Darkness Falls and the Triple Crown dream is very much alive. He’s 25-1 to achieve it, having been 80-1 after that Leopardstown success. I hope one or two of you may be on.

The Camelot colt is no bigger than 7-2 to win the 2000 Guineas and is a top-priced 4-1 for the Derby. Desert Castle has been pushed out to 6-1 for the former.

It could be that leg one is still the trickiest part of the Triple Crown quest. Connections of Desert Castle will no doubt be up for a rematch, for starters, and O’Brien, having scooped the first Classic of the season a record ten times, has seemingly lost the knack of winning it. You must travel back to Magna Grecia, in 2019, for his last victor, with his 14 subsequent runners – including three favourites in Battleground, Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy – all beaten.

Famously, O’Brien blamed himself for City Of Troy’s odds-on reverse, saying he had been too easy on him in the build-up. There was also talk of his heart rate soaring after an incident in the stalls. The champion juvenile went on to land the Derby, Eclipse and Juddmonte International.

The Autumn Stakes sectionals

O’Brien seems unlikely to make the same mistake twice, especially with John Magnier and company long having craved a horse who could emulate Nijinksy, the last horse to achieve the Triple Crown in 1970. They are not getting any younger and horses with even a whiff of a chance of pulling off the feat come along rarely.

Earlier in the day, Rock Montreal had impressed in the Emirates Autumn Stakes, while Drumbeat had run away with the Native Trail Zetland Stakes.

Rock Montreal had only a neck to spare over Sergei Diaghilev (previously no match for Desert Castle in the Champagne Stakes) but his effort can be upgraded as he swooped from off a sedate gallop.

The field went steady until halfway and Rock Montreal effectively gave the quick-striding Sergei Diaghilev a three-length head start (he was 0.52sec behind him after four furlongs) and still mastered him, without William Buick throwing the kitchen sink at him.

James Willoughby gave an excellent summary of his performance on today’s Luck On Sunday. You can watch that below.

The Blue Point colt is not yet in the same league as the Dewhurst 1-2, at least in terms of form, but we have been scratching the surface with him and he appeals as the type to keep thriving.

He’s 25-1 for the 2000 Guineas, which is tempting for a horse of his potential, but Desert Castle will be Godolphin’s No 1, and my one niggle about backing him (each-way) is that he could be directed elsewhere. For instance, he could be the type to attempt the French Guineas/Derby double.

Drumbeat smashed the ten-furlong course record for two-year-olds in the Zetland, although there would not be a big pool of juveniles who run over the trip, and even smaller number with a strong wind behind their backs.

Unlike in the Autumn Stakes, the pace in the first half mile was solid, featuring plenty of red (fast) splits. Drumbeat, carrying 9st 4lb, completed those first four furlongs in 49.98sec, whereas Rock Montreal, carrying 9st 3lb in a race run over two furlongs less, took 50.65sec (about four lengths difference).

That early tempo took its toll on most of the runners and it was perhaps no coincidence the winner, and the second Wykehurst Park, sat off it.

Drumbeat was the only runner who managed to sustain a gallop. It might have looked like he was quickening clear in the closing stages, but he was merely going less slow than his rivals, who were to different degrees grinding to a halt.

The Finishing Speed Percentage Par was 102.21%, and even Drumbeat (101.20%) could not reach it.

However, this was a strong staying performance. Breaking the ten furlongs down to individual races, he was 4631121111. On a day when there was lots of talk of the Guineas and Derby, this looked an early St Leger hint, while keeping in mind that his dam was a sprinter in South Africa.

Finally, we again salute Musical Times, a filly whose impressive data at Yarmouth and Doncaster we have already written plenty about.

She had only a length to spare over the 91-rated Haven at the end of the bet 365 Fillies’ Mile, but she produced an escape act that Giacomo Casanova would have been proud of.

William Buick weaved here, there, and everywhere desperately trying to find room to manoeuvre. In, out, in, out, shake it all about; this was a Group One Hokey Cokey being danced out before our eyes.

RaceiQ data is free within our results section

As such, her early sectionals were something of an irrelevance, but she flew when Buick finally engineered some space to work with in the final furlong.

She completed the final 220 yards in a “fast” 12.24sec, which was 0.32sec (about two lengths) swifter than the runner-up. Inferior rivals who got first run on her were put in their place.

As we’ve touched on before, she has a remarkably similar profile to Desert Flower, another Charlie Appleby-trained chestnut who won the May Hill and Fillies’ Mile en route to 1000 Guineas glory. As noted by Vicki Gibbins, in a Sporting Life column, Musical Times’ average stride on Friday was 7.57 metres, the same as Desert Flower in the 2024 Fillies’ Mile.

Musical Times v Sun Goddess in the 1000 Guineas 24 hours after Darkness Falls trying to scoop leg one of the Triple Crown? There is much to keep Flat fans warm over the winter.

Enjoy our RaceiQ pace maps

TAKE A LOOK AT THE RACEIQ PACE MAPS AND DRAW ADVANTAGE IN OUR RACECARDS

James Willoughby shares an "exciting" 25-1 tip for the 2000 Guineas

Five horses to follow in Britain and Ireland on Sunday

David Casey: Willie Mullins-trained horses to follow plus youngsters to note

Darkness Falls denies Desert Castle in Dewhurst cracker

‘You have to be excited’ – Triple Crown dreams for O’Brien with Darkness Falls

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