RaceiQ: Thundering On states her case for the Arc

Thundering On was a scintillating winner of the Betfred Oaks at Epsom on Friday, with the style of her performance backed up by the clock.

It looked a non-vintage edition beforehand, with the nine runners having collectively won only 15 of their previous 43 races, none of them in Group One company.

Not one runner had an official rating higher than 110 and the top-rated runner, Venetian Lace, clearly failed to handle the tacky conditions and trailed home last. By contrast, Thundering On coped admirably with conditions.

The winning time on the prevailing good to soft ground was 2min 39.64sec, which was 0.20sec slower than the RaceiQ Par. The Time Index was 5.8, when the meeting average was 5.5, but the strength of the winner's final furlong suggests that needs upgrading.

Thundering On was in a different league as she surged to victory by 3¾ lengths (0.69 seconds) under a cool hold-up ride by Dylan Browne McMonagle.

The field initially went quite quick and McMonagle anchored the Joseph O'Brien-trained filly in last, showing no interest in budging from there for the first mile.

She powered into contention on the bridle, and when McMonagle eventually pressed the button, heading to the final furlong, it was quickly all over.

Thundering On dipped a smidgeon under 12sec in the final furlong, providing a splash of red (fast) in the sectionals when all around her was a sea of blue (slow). What she found off the bridle in the closing stages, having previously not run beyond ten furlongs, was the cherry on top of the cake.

Legacy Link, who had previously won the Musidora, only able to respond with 12.69sec. The runner-up did not convince with her stamina, although, bar the winner, she was the only runner to dip under 13sec in the final 220 yards.

The others either did not get home or simply lacked the gears to keep up. From furlong seven onwards, only the first two avoided a “bluewash”.

One niggle is that Thundering On is unproven on fast ground, although the word "good" featured in the going description when she showed a fine turn of foot to land the Salsabil Stakes on her penultimate start.

She won that day in a time 8sec quicker than Ezeliya has prevailed in two years earlier (officially the going was the same) before she won at Epsom.

The Irish Oaks looks at her mercy, and she will continue to take a lot of beating when tackling her own sex.

We are unlikely to find out just how good she is until she tackles the boys.

Her connections might not feel compelled to take on that up that challenge until, perhaps, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in October. She ranges between 8-1 and 12-1 in the ante-post betting for that showpiece.

Three-year-old fillies have a great record in the race and that latter price, offered by bet365, looks worth an each-way play.

We’ve had a dive into the RaceiQ database to see how the winning time of Betfred Derby hero Christmas Day compares with other 1m 4f winners at Epsom in recent years.

The deep conditions on Saturday made for an attritional renewal and he was the slowest victor of the race since Teenoso in 1983, stopping the clock in 163.75 seconds.

The RaceiQ database has 46 mile and a half Epsom races in its database, from the past four years, with Emily Upjohn having the No 1 time of 153.85 seconds in the 2023 Coronation Cup. In other words, about 10 seconds (50 to 60 lengths) quicker than Christmas Day.

Auguste Rodin was not far behind her when landing the Derby 24 hours later, with Jan Brueghel clocking 156.13 seconds when edging out Calandagan in last year’s Coronation Cup, when the ground was officially good to soft.

Christmas Day pops up at 37th on the charts, while his final three furlongs of 38.27sec was fifth slowest of the whole bunch.

To put that into context, Bosphorous Rise, the quickest, polished them off in 32.98sec when landing a Class 5 handicap at the track last summer.

The top four lowest Finishing Speed Percentages over 1m4f includes a trio who were in action on Saturday: Too Soon (103.62%, No1); Bay City Roller (106.64%, No 3) and Christmas Day (106.73%, 4th). The standard FSP for a 1m 4f race at Epsom is about 111%.

Most sluggish of all the 1m 4f winners has been Sir Rumi, who won the 2023 Great Metropolitan in a time of 174.83sec when all the runners came stands’ side. 

Della Pace came close to capping a great weekend for her Derby-winning sire, Camelot, when third in this Listed contest on Sunday. 

The first four finished almost upsides, but it was the George Boughey-trained filly who caught the eye after an awkward start that left her last of the eight runners.

Jamie Spencer bided his time, sticking to the far rail, but then the field migrated to the stands’ side, so the pair ended up on the wing.

Whether that made any difference is open to debate but what is not in question is that she was fastest through the sixth furlong (12.80sec), 0.01sec off being fastest in furlong seven, also second fastest in furlong eight (11.77sec) and then quickest through each of the final two furlongs, being easily the only runner to dip under 13sec in the final furlong (12.92sec).

Her late momentum carried her to within a short head and neck of victory, and clearly on another day she would have won. She was a slower to 20mph than the winner, Venetia, and ended up just 0.07sec behind her. 

Spoken Truth has won only one of his 13 races, which was two years ago, but it’s surely only a matter of time before he resumes winning ways.

The five-year-old, having only his fourth start for David O’Meara, was a distant third to handicap blot Sallaal on this occasion, but he fared easily best of those held up off the pace. Indeed, he was second fastest through three of the final four furlongs, being quicker than all bar the impressive winner, and that enabled him to make the frame after being only tenth with two furlongs to run.

Rated 86, he can run in much lesser races than this and will surely be placed to advantage by O’Meara and The Horsewatchers, who picked him up for 32,000gns in the autumn of 2025. They’ve already recouped that in placed prize money this term.

The first pair home here were on marks of 107 and 105, with the winner now bound for pattern company. 

Altareq had been a massive eye-catcher on his first run for Jim Goldie when a staying-on third over 1m2½f  at York last month and remains one to be positive about despite finishing only third of the five runners in this mile handicap.

This race was run at a crawl, reflected by the Time Index score of 0.3 out of 10 when the meeting average was 3.2, and it was perhaps no surprise that Diego Ventura, who made the running, clung on to victory from Eternal Force, who tracked him.

Meanwhile, Altareq sat last of the five runners and when the race turned into something of a three-furlong dash he was hemmed in and initially unable to find top gear. 

To compound matters, the excellent Lauren Young also had to switch to the outside to get clear water. Altareq picked up well deep inside the final furlong and his overall Finishing Speed percentage was marginally better than the winner, but the damage had been done. 

He’s entered in another 1m2½f handicap at York on Friday, plus the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot.