Saturday ante-post tips: three selections at 50-1, 25-1 and 7-1

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Nic Doggett looks away from the top of the markets as he turns his attention to Saturday's action on Paddy Power Gold Cup day at Cheltenham, live on Racing TV.

How do you approach a juvenile hurdler? If they have jumped poorly on debut but won, do you think they will jump more proficiently next time? Or will they jump poorly once more and be found out in better company?

That’s the conundrum with the two James Owen-trained entries for the JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (1.10), Charles Darnay and Magnetude, who were both Wetherby winners on debut despite doing plenty wrong.

Owen won the race with similar Gredley Family-owned types in 2023 (Burdett Road) and 2024 (East India Dock), however both had shown more respect for their hurdles when wining first-time-out at Huntingdon.

I’m more interested in ADMIRAL WILL BROWN who, for me, looks the pick of the Irish runners as I think he achieved more when beating Kenough on debut in a race previously won by subsequent Grade One winners Wodhooh and Mange Tout, than Atomic City achieved in his win, for all he came from a long way back.

The Paddy Magee-trained gelding won on quick ground on the level, hurdled fluently on debut (especially when quickening), and has a progressive profile. From the family of Final Demand, he looks the best value at 7-1 to put his young trainer in the spotlight.

Admiral Will Brown rewarded some market support when winning on his hurdling debut

There’s a chance that the next few months for RISKINTHEGROUND might be full of outings that are built around getting his handicap mark down to a workable one for spring targets (has won the same Haydock race in April for the last two years), but I wonder whether he might have one more big effort in the tank whilst the ground remains quick.

He’s 66s in a place but a general 50-1 chance for the Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (2.20) despite a very solid run when third behind Pic d’Orhy and Handstands under a penalty in the Charlie Hall Chase last month.

The handicapper has sportingly left his mark of 146 unchanged, he has lots of solid form on both the New and Old Courses here, and it would be no surprise to see him hit the frame with a strongly-run race (doesn’t do much in-front) likely to show him in the best light.

Issam (50-1) and Moon d’Orange (33-1) are other outsiders of note, but Riskintheground looks the best value.

Riskintheground jumped around for third in the Charlie Hall Chase last time

The market for the From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle (2.55) should prove informative. Ace Of Spades was given a quiet ride behind Gold For Alec on his reappearance last month, and gives the impression that he might be one for the spring (stablemate Supremely West was a well-beaten 5-4 favourite in this last year before going on to win at the Festival).

Geezer Rockstar looked rejuvenated by the combination of quick ground and cheekpieces in April and May. Clearly not short of stamina, he appeared to appreciate the longer trip when following up his Wincanton win at Uttoxeter, and with solid form at Chepstow and Ascot there’s no reason to think that he won’t handle this venue. However, he has two alternative Saturday entries at Windsor and it’s hard to be sure that he will pitch up here.

That’s also not guaranteed with OPEN SECRET, who also has an entry in the 2m5f contest 35 minutes later, but that actually looks a much more competitive race and I’m hoping that connections decide to try the longer trip here with the five-year-old.

Fit from a run on the Flat to blow away the cobwebs, the former Mark Johnston inmate appeared undone by the sprint for home when 14th in the Martin Pipe here in March, and this longer race looks a better fit with the ground riding quick. Although a winner on heavy over hurdles, he handles this ground well and looks a big price at 25-1 (same price for the later race).

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Saturday selections 

1.10 Cheltenham (JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle)

ADMIRAL WILL BROWN at 7-1 (Betfair, Sky Bet, Paddy Power)

Nic Doggett

Admiral Will Brown

13:10 Cheltenham

J:

T:

P Magee

2.20 Cheltenham (Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase)

RISKINTHEGROUND each-way at 50-1 (general)

Nic Doggett

Riskintheground

14:20 Cheltenham

J:

Harry Atkins

T:

D Skelton

2.55 Cheltenham (From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle)

OPEN SECRET each-way at 25-1 (Betfair, Sky Bet, Paddy Power)

Nic Doggett

Open Secret

14:55 Cheltenham

J:

T:

G Elliott

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