The Data Detective: clues and tips for day one of Royal Ascot

More Thunder chased home Notable Speech on his return in the Lockinge and, with that run under his belt, can turn the tables.

He was just 0.01 seconds slower than his conqueror over the final half mile, with his Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 102.82% being marginally better. He's a habitually strong finisher over whatever trip he tackles.

More Thunder is the better drawn of the pair this time – RaceiQ gives him a 0.68 length advantage before the race has even started – and he can avenge his unlucky defeat in the Wokingham 12 months ago, when flying from 22nd to second in the last two furlongs.

Confucius is a hot favourite for Coventry and his numbers add up,

The Time Index for his success at Naas last time was 9.7 when the meeting average was 7.5, with the race run 2.64sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par. However, his draw in stall 20 is a niggle and the bookmakers have pricd him up defensively in a field featuring eight beaten colts, of which he isn't one.

Siouxperb makes more appeal, each-way, at double-figure odds.

He was well backed when an easy winner on his debut at Yarmouth and, while the pace was steady and overall time was slow, he flew through the final two furlongs in 21.68sec.

His stride was a massive 8.64 metres at its peak and the fact he's had only one run is a little misleading, as he'd had a barrier trial before that outing. 

Bow Echo is hard to oppose in the St James’s Palace Stakes, yet is almost Evens.

The unbeaten George Boughey-trained colt was electric when swooping from off the pace and thumping Gstaad by 2¾ lengths in the 2000 Guineas last month. 

Gstaad will have his supporters for the rematch after his subsequent emphatic victory in the Irish Guineas, but the data tells us that Bow Echo was quicker than him in each of the final six furlongs at Newmarket. 

Between furlongs two and seven he didn’t clock a sectional slower than 11.49 seconds and then he signed off with a “fast” final furlong that was on a different plane to his rivals. 

Talk Of New York enhanced his reputation at Sandown last time, securing a Time Index of 9.9 when   

Siempre Arturo is unproven beyond a mile and a half but that seems factored into his massive price. 

He caught the eye when fifth in a good 12-furlong handicap at Ascot last month, when he stayed on strongest of all in  race run more than three seconds quicker than the RaceiQ Par. 

The third, Occupation and sixth, Valedictory, have been good winers since. In fact, the latter would have been a likely leading fancy for this had he not been balloted out.

Siempre Arturo's stamina reserves are unknown and he was also entered in the Copper Horse (over 1m 6f) but missed the cut. He has been staying on well at the end of several of his 1m 4f races and this contest can often be falsely run.

Jason Watson has had 7 winners from 56 rides at Ascot in the past 5 years, showing a £182.70 profit to a nominal £1 stake.