The Data Detective has a 28-1 fancy for Saturday
By Andy Stephens
Last Updated: Thu 27 Aug 2026
Andy Stephens, AKA The Data Detective, shares his best bets for Sandown and Goodwood.
✅ 2.00 GOODWOOD: FORTY YEARS ON
Finishing Speed Percentage form: 111111
Top Speed form: 711411
Final 3f at Newbury: fastest in each
Forty Years On arrives here fresh and can continue on the up provided the ground is good or softer.
She’s had the highest Finishing Speed Percentage in each of her six races, hitting the highest speed of all the runners in four of those. She clocked “fast” sectionals in each of the final three furlongs when scoring in style at Newbury last time.
An 8lb rise in a deeper race makes life trickier but we do not know where her ceiling is and she has a favourable draw, with RaceiQ indicating stall two gives her an instant 0.66 length advantage.
The one niggle is if the forecast rain does not arrive, as she has looked suited by a bit of give underfoot.
✅ 2.35 GOODWOOD: TONY MONTANA
The scars are multiplying after 823 days without a win but he merits close attention here after his eye-catching fourth in the Chesterfield Cup at Glorious Goodwood.
The Kevin Philippart De Foy-trained six-year-old was drawn widest of the 17 runners and was obliged to race in rear, still having only one rival behind him with only two furlongs left to run.
However, he was fastest of the whole field in both, with splits of 11.17sec and 11.83sec sweeping him past a dozen rivals. He ended up being beaten only a length and a half with well-fancied market leaders Al Aali and Noble Horizon fighting out the finish.
This will be his first run beyond 1m2f since Royal Ascot in 2024 but perhaps it is what he has been looking for. His five siblings are all proven over 1m4f or further.
✅ 3.10 GOODWOOD: ARISAIG
FSP form at track: 1412
Final 2f in race last year: 23.27sec
Trainer Actual vs Expected at the track: 1.32
Arisaig is a 28-1 chance in the Celebration Mile but she goes well at Goodwood and was a keeping-on third in last year’s renewal when beaten under a length.
Her effort 12 months ago also demands an upgrade as she tried pouncing from off the pace in an edition run at slow early fractions. She was fastest in furlongs five, six and eight but ran out of road.
The five-year-old is habitually held up and the RaceiQ Pace Map suggests she will get the decent gallop she requires to show her best.
She was a keeping-on fourth to Blue Bolt on her last visit to this track in May. Only the high-class winner had a better Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP).
✅ 3.30 SANDOWN: BREACHER
Highest speed: 38.29mph
Final furlong on debut: 12.94sec (fast)
Time Index: 4.2 (meeting average 3.5)
Breacher looked an exciting prospect when beating an odds-on Juddmonte homebred on his debut at Salisbury.
He kept galloping when others had cried enough with his “fast” final furlong of 12.94 seconds hinting at much bigger days ahead.The runner-up took 13.48 seconds with none of the other runners breaking 14 seconds, plus the form has been franked.
The form has some substance, too, with the well-beaten fourth subsequently winning at Glorious Goodwood and now being rated 91.
✅ 5.10 SANDOWN: ROSARIO
He has been frustrating to follow, often starting slowly before getting going too late.
That has been the case on his past two three starts, when never closer than fourth even though his FSPs have been second, second and third.
Plus points here are that he is dropping in grade, has slipped to a career-low mark (now 9lb lower than when scoring at Goodwood last summer) and Sandown’s stiff finish.
His past two efforts have been solid enough and Rossa Ryan rides him for the first time.
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