The Data Detective: top trainer's quest for overdue win
By Andy Stephens
Last Updated: Fri 9 Oct 2026
Andy Stephens reckons a leading Newmarket handler will end his barren sequence on Saturday.
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Home games are supposed to be easier than days on the road, but Roger Varian could be forgiven for thinking differently.
One of the leading trainers in Britain is based in Newmarket but has not had a winner at either of his home tracks – the Rowley Mile or July Course – for almost 13 months.
Since the trainer’s Silent City won a fillies’ handicap over a mile on the Rowley Mile Course in September 2025, he has had 26 successive losers on that track plus been zero from 13 on the July Course.
That is at odds with his overall RaceiQ Actual versus Expected, which is 1.01. That means his runners in the past year have exceeded expectations by 1 per cent despite his sticky spell a few minutes from his base.
By way of comparison, Varian’s neighbours Charlie Appleby (28), John & Thady Gosden (18) and William Haggas (14) have between them had 60 winners at Newmarket over the past 12 months, albeit having had many more runners.
But Saturday could be the day when Varian comes off the Newmarket Cold List. His one runner at Headquarters is Rock Montreal, who will carry the Godolphin silks in the Emirates Autum Stakes (2.25).
The Blue Point colt has a big stride – it peaked at 8.25 metres when he won on his debut at Yarmouth - but he took a bit of time to get organised when touched off by Forbidden Fire in Listed company over 7f at Doncaster last time.
His final furlong of 12.06sec was easily best but the finishing line came too soon for him. The winner finished third in the Fillies' Mile on Friday.
All his metrics point to him relishing moving up to a mile for the first time and he can give Varian an overdue triumph on home soil.
Darkness Falls gets the vote in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket (3.00).
He is already favourite for the Derby after his impressive Group One win over nine furlongs at Leopardstown last time but the data tells us he is not short of speed, either, and now he gets the chance to advance his claims for the 2000 Guineas.
The Camelot colt has been swift to reach 20mph in each of his three races and built on an encouraging debut by romping home by seven lengths at The Curragh on his second start, when making all after dictating steady early fractions.
On his latest start he was always going fluently and his acceleration swept him clear. His Time Index of 9.7 when the meeting average was 8.1, was a standout on the day.
His rivals today include the unbeaten Desert Castle, who was promoted to the top of the 2000 Guineas betting after his smooth success in the Champagne Stakes. He is exciting but his two victories have been achieved in steadily run races and he is likely to face a different test.
Beylerbeyi can land back-to-back editions of the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (3.40).
The six-year-old is 10lb higher in the ratings than when pouncing from off the pace 12 months ago but seems better than ever.
He was faster than Caballo De Mar in five of the final six furlongs when beaten just over a length by him in the Doncaster Cup last time out and the winner has since given that form a significant boost by upstaging Scandinavia in the Prix Du Cadran.
Before that, Beylerbeyi had also finished best when a fine fifth in the Ebor. His fast final furlong of 12.61sec was the only splash of red in the closing stages that day.
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