Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: who will be suited by the ground?

They say the best horse always wins the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and that is often true, but the race is so often affected by ground conditions and the draw.

We do not know the draw yet and we won’t do until Thursday, when the stall positions, which are allotted behind closed doors in the morning, are unveiled at an evening ceremony in the French capital.

However, we can make an educated guess at what the ground will be and it looks highly likely to be on the quicker side. After a dry, hot summer, Paris has seen little to no rain in the past two weeks, and it is set to reach 28 degrees at the track on Tuesday. The caveat to this is Wednesday, where rain and possible thunderstorms look likely.

Good ground has certainly become a more common sight on the first Sunday in Paris over the past decade. Treve’s bid for a record third Arc was famously scuppered by fast ground back in 2015, whilst Ace Impact won in a virtual heatwave under fast conditions three years ago. Found and Enable have also won Arcs on good ground in the last ten years.

Though defending champion Daryz won in a deluge twelve months ago on softer ground, connections are unlikely to be too worried about better ground this year, in fact they may even prefer it.

The son of Sea The Stars won the Prix Ganay on ultra-quick ground over an extended mile and a quarter on his seasonal debut in April, and he yet again won on similar ground over this course and distance in the Prix Foy three weeks ago. He has a sparkling turn of foot, and providing he is not drawn wide, holds outstanding claims of retaining his title. 

It is worth noting that the French penetrometer is totally independent of the going sticks used on British and Irish racecourses and even the literal translation of the going does not correlate to the equivalent description this side of the Channel (see below).

So who may be suited by a good ground Arc? Other than Daryz, who looks versatile, connections of Maltese Cross are surely hoping for the forecast Wednesday deluge to stay well away from the 16th arrondissement.

The William Haggas-trained three-year-old is four from five this season on a sound surface, with his only defeat coming at the hands of Christmas Day in a soft-ground Derby, a stellar effort in his first Group race nevertheless.

In truth, there is a large pool of horses who should be perfectly suited by the forecast Sunday ground, including King George and Yorkshire Oaks heroine Kalpana, should she run, plus the ground versatile Diamond Necklace.

Aidan O'Brien's filly has attracted significant market support over recent days, with the Champion Trainer confirming on Monday that he intends to run the daughter of St Mark's Basilica in the mile and a half showpiece.

Though she has won both the Prix Marcel Boussac and French 1000 Guineas on softer ground at the track, she has since landed the French Oaks and Nassau Stakes on good to firm ground, and given she is unproven at this trip, connections are likely to be hoping for the word 'good' somewhere in the description.

Stable companions Benvenuto Cellini and last year's runner-up Minnie Hauk also have form on softer ground but are unlikely to want it to get testing, whilst Daryz's stablemate Varandir has form on various ground descriptions in France ranging from 'very soft' to 'good to firm'.

The Japanese have long been in pursuit of Arc glory, since 1969 in fact, and have sent over 38 runners without success. Orfevre came an agonisingly close second to Solemia in 2012 and filled the same spot behind Treve a year later.

The nation looks set to have two outside chances this year with five-year-olds Meisho Tesoro and Admire Terra. The former arrives in France off the back of a career-best performance in June, where he defeated last year's Arc runner Croix Du Nord to win the Grade One Takarazuka Kinen.

The duo have been training in Chantilly over recent weeks and both have a strong preference for good ground.

Five years have passed since Torquator Tasso produced one of the all-time great Arc upsets in heavy ground, and the son of Adlerflug almost repeated the feat 12 months later in the rain behind Alpinista and Vadeni.

It looks unlikely that we will see another winner from Germany this year, as the only German-trained runner left in the race is the Andreas Suborics-trained Bright Light.

Although the lightly-raced three-year-old has recently been seen on good ground in his homeland over the summer months, he had previously shown an ability to handle soft ground. Firstly, at Longchamp in May when second in Listed company, and then at Milan in June where he was sent off favourite for the Italian Derby and finished fourth on ground officially described as heavy.

Of the more fancied runners in the market, Thundering On and Bay City Roller are the pair to concentrate on if the ground is softer than anticipated.

The former, an emphatic of the Oaks in June on good to soft, was beaten in the Irish equivalent on good to firm ground the following month, though she was found the be coughing post-race, but bounced back to winning ways in the Blandford Stakes on ground described as good this month.

The daughter of Frankel was second on heavy ground as a juvenile and is a certain stayer, and gets all the allowances as a three-year-old filly.

Meanwhile, Bay City Roller was last seen finishing a highly creditable second to Daryz in a quick-ground Prix Foy at the beginning of the month, but was seen to much better effect in June when he ran away with the Coronation Cup, scoring by ten lengths in attritional conditions.

Roger Varian's Saddadd and Mauricio Delcher Sánchez's Pearled Majesty both quoted at a best-priced 40-1, fall into the same bracket of having winning form on soft ground, but are untested on the surface at a high level and have since demonstrated their ability to perform just as well on good to firm ground.

The French-trained outsiders Light The Ghost, Chestnut Rocket and last year's sixth Arrow Eagle also have form in testing conditions.