Join

Bankers or blowouts? Assessing the favourites on Arc weekend

Last Updated: Thu 1 Oct 2026

Racing TV encourages responsible gambling - to find out more click here to head to our dedicated website page.

Nic Doggett assesses whether or not the market leaders at this weekend's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe meeting are worth backing or taking on.

Pierre Bonnard - Qatar Prix Chaudenay (12.23, Saturday)

Best Odds: 10-11

Aidan O’Brien used this race in 2024 to get some confidence back into Illinois following a defeat in the St Leger; the difference this year is that Pierre Bonnard was beaten nearly nine lengths at Doncaster, compared to Illinois’ neck loss.

Illinois had already proven himself fully over further than a mile and half (had won the Queen’s Vase), but – while shaping like a test of stamina will suit - Pierre Bonnard is yet to actually show it.

Jabracadabra should ensure this is run at a fair clip, which should suit his stablemate Victoire Magique and Space Waltz; they offer solid opposition to the odds-on favourite.

Verdict: BLOWOUT

Sunly - Qatar Prix de Royallieu (3.25, Saturday)

Best Odds: 5-4

A stumbling start, a troubled passage, and a strong late finish all added up to Sunly going into many a notebook following the Prix Vermeille last month, and with quick ground prevailing it’s no surprise to see her up in trip in this race rather than any loftier ambitions.

Waardah won well in a first-time hood at Doncaster last time, and is enjoying a fine season, but I’m not sure she is quite as effective on this quicker ground.

Consent was an impressive winner ahead of Santorini Star in last year’s renewal, but the ground has come more in the latter’s favour (and her trainer has often targeted this race), so she looks the value along with the adaptable Fairy Glen who looks sure to go well back up in trip.

But I think Sunly’s class will come to the fore.

Verdict: BANKER

Another win for Scandinavia awaits

Scandinavia - Qatar Prix du Cadran (4.00, Saturday)

Best Odds: 4-9

I thought Scandinavia might be vulnerable in the Irish St. Leger last time, but I was very wrong, his performance as efficient as his price suggested it would be. He’s no frills, but he doesn’t need to be to beat the current crop of stayers and the only thing that layers can cling to is that quite a few odds-on Ballydoyle shots have lost in France this year.

Queenstown was three lengths behind Caballo De Mer in last year’s renewal of this race, but it was a weaker event, and he will likely just set it up for Scandinavia again; I can’t see any hope for any of them, really.

Verdict: BANKER

Quddwah - Qatar Prix Daniel Wildenstein (4.35, Saturday)

Best Odds: 11-8

There’s plenty of pace on here, which wasn’t the case when Quddwah was ideally positioned to pick up front-runner Audience in a valuable Group Two at Leopardstown last time.

He’s entitled to come on for that first start since March, but I think Isaac Newton – who was behind him that day – can reverse the form with this race run more to suit.

Quddwah made a winning return to action in Ireland

This larger field will suit Elastic after his 111-day break, and – along with the same owners’ filly Anakova - he strikes me as another who wouldn’t be a shock winner at all.

Verdict: BLOWOUT

Green Empress - Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac (12.40, Sunday)

Best Odds: 9-4

Sun Goddess 3 – 0 Green Empress. That’s the scoreline this year when the two have met, but the good news for fans of the Joseph O’Brien-trained filly is that her Ballydoyle rival is absent as she goes up in trip. That should suit on both breeding and run style.

Queen Of The Day and Data are closely matched on their run at Deauville in August, and both are respected, but this doesn’t look the strongest juvenile event of the weekend and it looks a good opportunity for Green Empress to get back to winning ways.

Verdict: BANKER

Folsom Blues - Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (13.15, Sunday)

Best Odds: 7-4

A six-length win in a Group One doesn’t come around very often, and, with his form stacking up well from earlier in the season with Sun Goddess, it’s no wonder that Folsom Blues heads the market with British and Irish bookmakers.

But will that be the case on the PMU?

“I love this horse and still think he's the best I've trained,” said Christopher Head after Avec Toi’s trial win in which he successfully gave weight to the previously unbeaten Imperial Strike who reopposes. That’s a strong claim from a man who grew up around Goldikova.

The Verdict team analyse Folsom Blues' six-length win

With Man’s Best Friend likely to progress again now up in trip/back on faster ground for a stable chasing a hat-trick in the race, this has the makings of a good renewal, but Folsom Blues’ form with Sun Goddess gives him the edge until proven otherwise.

Verdict: BANKER

Daryz - Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (15:05, Sunday)

Best Odds: 7-4

On all the evidence we’ve seen this season – in France at least – last year’s winner Daryz looks a better horse than the one who prevailed 12 months ago. Although the ground was against his rival, he made Bay City Roller look very ordinary in the Prix Foy, and that was the perfect prep.

King George winner Kalpana’s season has been much more arduous, and for all her great attributes, I’m worried that this might be a bridge too far.

In terms of dangers, I think Diamond Necklace – who won the Prix Marcel Boussac on this card last year - may emerge as one of the biggest given the high regard in which she is held, though clearly fellow three-year-old Maltese Falcon has done very little wrong, and Daryz’s stablemate Varandir also makes plenty of appeal.

But they’re all each-way options really, with Daryz fancied to follow in the footsteps of this century’s dual winners Treve and Enable.

Verdict: BANKER

Aventure – Prix de l'Opera Longines (15:50, Sunday)

Best Odds: 6-4

Though the form of Aventure’s wins this season could already have been franked by Sunly and Diamond Necklace, I don’t think the ground is in her favour, so I’m looking to take her on.

Quick ground should suit both Precise and Pink Panthera. The last-named will need a strong gallop to be at her very best down in trip, but this distance looks tailormade for Precise and I fancy her to come out on top, especially as she shouldn’t have to come from as far back.

Cankoura looked to be teed up perfectly for this race when behind the favourite last time, and is another who helps form a strong team of opponents.

Verdict: BLOWOUT

Samangan - Qatar Prix de la Foret (16:25, Sunday)

Best Odds: 9-4

Samangan is likely to top the market both on the PMU and with British and Irish bookies thanks to his narrow win in the Prix Maurice De Gheest, but Thesecretadversary has the beating of him (along with True Love and Nighttime) on their form earlier in the season.

The Fozzy Stack-trained colt should appreciate the drop back in trip here having faded late on in the Prix Jacques le Marois, and I fancy him to get back to winning ways. He could be the best bet on the card.

Verdict: BLOWOUT

Click here to look at our latest competitions. There are some fabulous prizes on offer!

Your essential guide to the 2026 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

Thursday tips: Dave Nevison's best bets at Salisbury

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: who will be suited by the ground?

Dave Nevison's Wednesday tips after 106-1 and 260-1 trebles

Juvenile Watch: HQ review and a horse to follow

Featured offers

Bet £20 and Get £40 in Free Bets with Unibet

T&Cs Apply

Claim Now

Unibet: Bet £20 and Get £40 in Free Bets with Unibet

Bet £10 get £40 in free bets with Kwiff

T&Cs Apply

Claim Now

New UK customers. Place a £10 real money bet at min. 2.0 odds within 5 days of deposit. Get 4 x £10 Free Bets: 1 Single, 2 Accas & 1 Bet Builder (min. 3 selections each). Excludes cashout, E/W, Multis, Ineligible Markets & Odds Boosts. Credited after bet settlement. 7-day expiry. T&Cs apply. 18+ GambleAware

Get 50% back up to £50 with QuinnBet

T&Cs Apply

Claim Now

New UK Customers Only. Bet £10+ on any sportsbook markets at odds of evens (2.00) or greater. Get 50% back of your first day’s losses as a Free Bet up to £50, valid for 7 days. 18+ GambleAware.

Bet £10 get £30 in Free Bets with talkSPORT BET

T&Cs Apply

Claim Now

talkSPORT BET: Bet £10 get £30 in Horse Racing Free Bets. 18+ GambleAware

Please bet responsibly

Races

Tips

Watch

Results