Ruby Walsh sets the scene by pinpointing five storylines which could play out as the 2026-27 Jumps season notches up a gear.
SECOND-GUESSING NATURE
The ground, or going, on racecourses always seems to be a hot topic of debate. But after the glorious summer we all enjoyed, the scorched grass, water restrictions and lack of moisture in the soil are now a concern for the majority of racecourses that are planning for the winter ahead.
The biggest question they face is: what is the right thing to do? There is no doubt they will need water to encourage grass growth and root stability. But do they continue watering to adjust soil moisture levels so they can race, or do they wait for nature to run its course, which it eventually will?
Doing it themselves will be a short-term win and ensure they can race now, but the long-term effects of autumn watering could lead to oversaturated soil in late spring and early winter.
It really is a catch-22 situation for courses, but flexibility in the schedule and the transfer of meetings would be a better solution. Taking the early “winter track" meetings and giving them to the “summer tracks” would be a quick fix, and the swap could be reciprocated in the spring as the “summer tracks” wait to dry and the“winter tracks” still have enough moisture in the ground.
A lot can be learned from history, and there was good reason for where and when those who went before us raced in certain places at different times of the year. For all the advances in the world, our elders seemed to understand nature better.
DESPERATE DAN
Dan Skelton’s charge through the summer months in pursuit of Martin Pipe’s seasonal best tally of 243 winners in a season has most certainly provided entertainment on the summer jumping circuit.
I did laugh at a comment from Joseph O’Brien last week, along the lines of, “setting targets would drive him mad, so he doesn’t.” Dan, on the other hand, seems to have a target for all 365 days in the year, but if he is to get to and beat Martin’s record, the weather will need to be kind.
Frost, snow and waterlogging are the uncontrollable challenges he will face. Which horses go where and which horses can win races are things he can plan, but if he is going to get by 243 winners by the end of play at Sandown next April, even his big guns will have to pick off a soft touch or two along the way.
Some might complain, but given Dan’s commitment to this particular goal, you should be able to see it coming already and don’t expect too many Skelton horses to be making up the numbers anywhere.
BRITISH BITING BACK
The first four home in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle this year were trained in Britain, headed by winner Old Park Star. (Pic: focusonracing.com)
Obviously, Dan also has an eye on the quality of his string as well as the quantity, and the surge in the spending of the British pound at the Irish store sales was spread across a wide variety of British trainers looking to bridge the gap in quality between both sides of the Irish Sea.
Most of what was bought in May and June won’t see much of the racecourse this season, but the cycle begins with novice hurdlers. If you don’t have them, you don’t have novice chasers, and without them you can’t have champions.
The first four in the Supreme, the second and fourth in the Turners, the second and third in the Triumph, and first and fourth in the Albert Bartlett are all housed in the UK.
The wheel always turns, and those results appear to have sparked even more investment from British owners. That will take time to come to fruition, but the more competitive the sport is, the better the product we all get to enjoy.
AGE IS JUST A NUMBER – BUT KEY INIDENTIFYING THE NEXT CHAMPIONS
Can Lossiemouth, Il Etait Temps and Gaelic Warrior repeat their Festival heroics? (Pic: Inpho Photography)
Golden Ace, Marine Nationale, Fact To File, Bob Olinger and Inothewayyurthinkin were the five championship heroes this time 12 months ago. None of the five managed to retain their crowns at the Festival just gone, so five new names will begin the upcoming season looking to defend their crowns.
Home By The Lee and Heart Wood were surprise heroes to me, and I wouldn’t have selected either this time last year to achieve what they did, but I guess the moral of the story is to look outside the box.
Mydaddypaddy, Lulamba, Zeus Power, Koktail Divin and Kitzbuhel all have the age profiles to suggest they should be better horses than they were last year.
Can they get up to the standard of Lossiemouth, Il Etait Temps, Home By The Lee, Heart Wood, and Gaelic Warrior?
That is another question, but Lossiemouth will be the youngest of those at eight by next March, so that age might play a part for some of them. Eighty-five per cent of champion hurdlers are aged between six and eight, a plus for Lossiemouth. Champion Chase winners fit into the seven to nine bracket, so not a negative for Il Etait Temps.
Home By The Lee bucked the trend last year, but 12 years of age will be a negative for him, and seven to nine is the optimum bracket for Ryanair winners, which works for Heart Wood but would be a negative for last year’s ante-post favourite Fact To File.
However, eight- and nine-year-olds have won the most Gold Cups, so Gaelic Warrior falls into the positive bracket, but whatever you believe right now, expect the unexpected to materialise at some point.
JOCKEYS’ JOBS COULD BE ON THE LINE…
Harry Cobden will be riding more in Ireland than ever before.
The constant spinning of the wheel in the jockey ranks has those at the bottom trying to catch up and thoseat the top trying to stay there. Neither is easy, but it is all about taking every chance you get.
Harry Cobden’s new role as JP McManus’s retained rider will mean he spends a lot more time in the air than he used to, but it will also see him riding for a wider range of trainers, putting himself into their minds for any spare rides going.
That appointment will also mean fewer opportunities for Mark Walsh, and his move into the freelance world will put some extra pressure on second and third jockeys in other yards.
The emergence of Daniel King on the Irish scene will also keep people on their toes, with Danny Gilligan pushing Jack Kennedy, and Conor Stone Walsh making Keith Donoghue work hard.
Sean Bowen’s effort to chase down Harry Skelton will make the early part of every week interesting, but he will need some luck, as the Dan Skelton juggernaut will make whoever is riding his horses a nightmare to compete with.
Life was never designed to be fair, and the reality for any jockey is that you are only as good as the job you have. I could not even begin to price a race; I’m not an expert on which cross produces the best racehorses; and I don’t know how to work the sales. But what I do know is how important it is for a jockey to have a good job.
There are only a few of them to go around that will bring about the success any jockey strives for, but winners are the only currency in a jockey’s life, and a few younger ones are clocking them up, which could open a door or two for more changes in the season ahead.
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