The Data Detective: an 80-1 tip for the Cambridgeshire

The bet365 Cambridgeshire lends itself to shock winners and First Ambition is a huge-priced runner to consider in Saturday’s renewal.

You can almost get 80-1 across the board about the Michael Keady-trained five-year-old but don’t let that put you off. Dolphin Vista (50-1), Majestic Dawn (40-1) and Bedouin’s Story (40-1) have all prevailed in recent years, while Spanish Don triumphed at 100-1 in 2004.

Most bookmakers offer six places for each-way players and in the past six years alone you would have got paid out on Zozimus (100-1), You’re Hired (100-1), EBT’s Guard (80-1), Caradoc (66-1), Andaleep (66-1) and Dutch Decoy (50-1) in addition to two 40-1 winners.

The first leg of the autumn double is unique in being a nine-furlong race on a straight track, usually run at an end-to-end gallop with runners splitting into several groups.

Some thrive in this rare environment, while others can recoil. And the draw, which is an imponderable, means we can have several races for the price of one.

Low-drawn runners on the far side have fared best in the past two editions but those drawn high, near the stands’ side, had enjoyed something of a a monopoly before that.

Seven of the past ten renewals have been won by horses drawn between stalls 21 and 29, which is hard to ignore regardless of more recent events.

There’s a lack of habitual front-runners in this year’s race, which further complicates matters, but on balance First Ambition’s draw in 27 could, on paper at least, be a lot worse. The first four in the betting – Gavriel (stall 28), Indalo (26), Erzindjan (25) and Hand Of God (24) – are all drawn nearby and hopefully that will count for something.

Just to digress for a moment, Gavriel is as short as 4-1 in the betting and looks something of a plot job for a yard who have scooped this contest with Group One performers in the past.

It could be that Gavriel is another but his high stride cadence is a worry and suggests strongly that he might be better suited to shorter trips.

He won tidily over ten furlongs at Ascot last time, of course, but that race was run at a dawdle and turned into a test of speed. The winning time was almost 5sec slower than the RaceiQ Par and he hit 2.60 strides per second when at maximum capacity. We are into top sprinting territory here.

First Ambition is a son of multiple Group One winner Laurens (she was pretty handy on the Rowley Mile) but has been something of an underachiever since winning his first two starts on the all-weather, when trained by Karl Burke.

However, he’s slipped 8lb in the ratings in the past year; remains lightly raced; and it looks like a switch to Keady may have revived him.

First Ambition went off at 150-1 for a typically competitive handicap over 9f at Glorious Goodwood last month on his second start for the yard and caught the eye with his staying-on sixth, beaten about two lengths.

He had the third best Finishing Speed Percentage and that can be marked up, too, as he challenged out wide, whereas the principals stuck closer to the far rail.

The tough and consistent Shafdar finished just over a length ahead of him and is no bigger than 20- to win on Saturday. First Ambition meets him on 5lb better terms and is four times his price.

And then there is First Ambition’s latest run over 9f at Wolverhampton to consider.

It was only a Class 4 contest with none of the runners rated higher than 87 but it was strongly run and got a Time Index of 8.4 when the meeting average was only 5.5.

That makes it more interesting than most races run at the Midlands venue and First Ambition was again a big eye-catcher as he stayed on well for third from an unpromising position around the bend.

He ran as well as he could the way it unfolded, having the best Finishing Speed Percentage (106.35%) and hinting there was more in his locker. He was quickest of the dozen runners in each of the final three furlongs, sweeping him from eleventh into the frame.

The five-year-old is clearly in good heart and will think he is running loose with only 8st 3lb to carry.

Nicola Currie may have to skip breakfast to make that weight but she will relish having the chance of again shining on the big stage, while Keady has had a couple of winners in the past week after a barren spell.

Now all we need is for the horse to channel his inner Spanish Don. 

Finishing Speed % Form: 111.

Cork Time Index: 8.2 (meeting average 7.6)

Final 2F at Newmarket: 22.11sec (very fast)

Alwaysanangel looks overpriced in the Cheveley Park Stakes. She was the smooth winner of a seven furlong Listed race at Cork last time, clocking a time 2.12sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par.

Before that she had stayed on strongly from off a slow pace when third behind Senorita Bonita and Libertango in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes, when quicker than the winner in each of the final three furlongs. 

Finishing Speed Percentage Form: 11

Final 2F at Newmarket: 22.73sec (very fast)

Final furlong at York: 11.94sec (very fast)

Inner City Blues is an exciting colt and can provide Charlie Appleby and William Buick with a third successive Middle Park triumph.

The son of Blue Point quickened up smartly to complete the last two furlongs of the July Stakes in a swift 22.73 seconds, having previously shown similar acceleration at York. He is capable of much better yet.