Data Detective: Cheveley Park clues and 12-1 tip

Racing folk usually cannot agree on many things, but everyone seems united in the belief that this year’s two-year-olds are a vintage crop. 

This Friday and Saturday, more crucial pieces of the juvenile jigsaw will fall into place with the Tattersalls Sceptre Sessions Cheveley Park Stakes, in particular, looking something to savour. 

Headline acts Sun Goddess and Senorita Bonita, both already Group One winners, have official ratings of 119 and 117, respectively, and in the past decade there has not been a filly rated higher in the line-up.

And then we have a strong second wave in Libertango, Alwaysanangel, Moonrise and Star Of State to ponder. Here are the eight races that may well hold the key.

Date: June 19: Course: Ascot. Distance: 6f. 

Race: Albany Stakes. Runners: 25. 

What happened? 1 Libertango. 2 Sun Goddess. 

Win time: 73.12sec – 0.57sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par. 

Time flies by when you are having fun. It was three months ago that everyone was gnashing their teeth over the draw bias at Royal Ascot, when those in high stalls largely bossed those drawn low. 

Libertango bucked that trend in the Albany, when she broke from stall 3. And it was a slow break, too, as she was only 24th fastest to 20mph. Bad draw, bad break. It should have been curtains on the prevailing fast ground, notwithstanding the acceleration she had shown when winning on her debut at Nottingham the previous month. 

At halfway, she was still languishing in 23rd, and with two furlongs left there were still 17 rivals to pass and traffic problems to be negotiated. 

But then Billy Loughnane clicked the turbo button and the £400,000 breeze-up buy took off, being joint fastest in the penultimate furlong (11.77sec) and then easily fastest in the final furlong (11.84sec) despite having to weave about to find clear water. Those final 220 yards were exhilarating, being at least 0.48sec (about three lengths) quicker than anything else. 

She ended up winning by a length from Sun Goddess, who had an extra race under her belt and was 10-11 favourite after a previous runaway win at The Curragh. 

The runner-up had no excuses, being drawn in stall 17 and never worse than seventh throughout. Libertango was faster than her in each of the last four furlongs, completing the final furlong a chunky 0.54sec swifter. 

Yet Sun Goddess is 6-4 for the rematch, and Libertango is 4-1. Their subsequent exploits have been an obvious factor, but there also seems some “recency bias” at play.

Date: July 10: Course: Newmarket (July). Distance: 6f. 

Race: Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes. Runners: 8. 

What happened? 1 Senorita Bonita. 2 Libertango. 3 Alwaysanangel. 

Win time: 71.78sec – 0.65sec slower than the RaceiQ Par. 

Libertango was understandably a hot favourite for this Group Two prize three weeks later, but could not to get to grips with Senorita Bonita, who fended her off by three quarters of a length, with Alwaysanangel another short head away in third. 

This was unsatisfactory contest that developed into a two-furlong dash. The first three clocked slow or very slow sectionals for the first four furlongs before each signing off with “very fast’ splits. It was a classic blue (slow) and red (fast) race. 

It's unlikely there will be a repeat of such a muddling tempo on Saturday. 

Senorita Bonita was best placed of the trio when the pace finally picked up, being 0.39sec ahead of Libertango at halfway, with Alwaysanangel a whole second adrift. At the line, she was only 0.12sec ahead of the pair. 

Libertango clocked 43.29mph, the highest speed any of the Cheveley Park entries has managed, and she zipped through the penultimate furlong in 10.48sec, the quickest any of Saturday’s runners have managed. 

You could easily argue that Alwaysanangel was the horse to take away from the race, coming from where she did to go so close. In addition, the daughter of Harry Angel had only made her debut nine days earlier, when scoring with plenty to spare at Fairyhouse. 

But will she run on Saturday, or will she instead tackle the Rockfel Stakes 24 hours later? Joseph O’Brien has her engaged in both.

Date: August 9: Course: The Curragh. Distance: 6f. 

Race: Keeneland Phoenix Stakes Stakes. Runners: xx. 

What happened? 1 Sun Goddess. 

Win time: 69.67sec – 1.45sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par. 

Sun Goddess justified cramped odds in the Group Two Airlie Stud Stakes at The Curragh just eight days after Royal Ascot and then, having had a break, came this show of force at the highest level against the boys. 

Her stablemate, Carry The Flag, set strong early fractions and she initially raced in rear before muscling her way to the front. She had the best Finishing Speed Percentage of 101.57%, although could not reach the Par of 102.26%. Those early patient tactics served her well, with the first three in the first two furlongs ending up being the last three by the finish. 

Not for the first time, Sun Goddess’ running style and numbers indicated she would be suited by a seventh furlong. 

Folsom Blues, the runner-up, has since landed the National Stakes, but the close-up third, Velozee, has subsequently fared no better in the Round Tower Stakes.

Date: August 14: Course: Cork. Distance: 7f. 

Race: Irish Stallion Farms EBF Firville Stakes. Runners: 9. 

What happened? 1 Alwaysanangel. 

Win time: 83.43sec – 2.13sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par. 

Alwaysanangel had finished off well in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes and a month later was up a furlong in trip and down in grade (Listed level). 

She didn’t pick up from where she left off, dwelling at the start and being slowest to 20mph (3.16mph) by some margin (a stalls handler appeared to be stroking her down the shoulder when the gates opened). 

Not that it mattered. She travelled strongly throughout and did 95 per cent of her work on the bridle, whereas the opposition were working hard all around her. 

Her final furlong of 12.05sec, having switched course, was best by at least 0.23sec, but she had matters under control a little way out and the extra yardage was not essential. Breaking the furlongs down to individual races, she finished 9131121. 

The Time Index was 8.2, when the meeting average was 7.6, and the slick winning time was 0.55sec quicker than the year older Suzie Songs (carrying 6lb less) recorded when landing another Listed contest half an hour later. 

The third home, Maire Rua, went off favourite after a taking winning debut and has since won in good style at the Irish Champions Festival. The fourth, Damsel In Distress, has since gone close in Group Three company, while the sixth, Beibhinn, beaten 7¾ lengths, had finished 2¼ lengths third to Sun Goddess in the Airlie Stud Stakes.

Date: August 20: Course: York. Distance: 6f. 

Race: Sky Bet Lowther Stakes Stakes. Runners: 8. 

What happened? 1 Libertango. 2 Star Of State. 

Win time: 73.66sec – 0.78sec slower than the RaceiQ Par. 

Like at Royal Ascot, Libertango had another tricky draw to contend with plus much softer ground. 

Loughnane took a pull at the start, which led to her being slowest to 20mph, and gradually migrated to the opposite side of the track. 

It was an audacious ride but he had the horse under him to pull it off. No closer than 13th at halfway, the combination were sixth a furlong later; second approaching the final furlong; and then in front where it mattered most courtesy of a closing split of 12.58sec. 

Her main market rival, Star Of State, had worked her way to the front from a favourable low draw, but could not contain the winner, who was faster than her in each of the final four furlongs. 

This was a tough edition of the Lowther, given the testing conditions, and she was 0.19sec slower than Sun Goddess (who carried 2lb more) in the Sales’ race 35 minutes later. 

I would not get too hung up on that as the races were run in contrasting style. For instance, Sun Goddess ran the second furlong in 11.01sec, whereas Libertango took 11.48sec. Come the penultimate furlong, Sun Goddess took 12.50sec, while Libertango managed 11.98sec. It was all chalk and cheese, other than the fact that they both came from well off the pace. 

Incidentally, Moonrise was declared for the Lowther but withdrawn because of the soft going.

Date: August 23: Course: Deauville. Distance: 6f. 

Race: Sumbe Prix Morny. Runners: 7. 

What happened? 1 Senorita Bonita. 

Win time: 68.79sec. Time Index: --. 

We have no RaceiQ data for races in France, but we do know there have been only two faster winning times of the Prix Morny this century; one of them being Arcano (never won again) and the other Venetian Sun (one of this year’s sprinting stars). 

Visually, this was a stunning performance as Senorita Bonita looked to have plenty on her plate tucked up behind rivals as trail-blazing Carry The Flag raced clear. 

However, the leader capitulated and Senorita Bonita picked up in taking style, surging to a four-length success. 

Carry The Flag was in the race as a Ballydoyle pacemaker but held on for second spot. He has since disappointed in the Flying Childers, when getting a more orthodox ride, and the suspicion is that some smart performers among the also-rans did not give their running. 

But on a day of slow times on soft ground at Deauville, including in the Group races for older horses, Senorita Bonita’s work on the clock was impressive. She’s unbeaten in two starts over 6f, having finished runner-up in the Queen Mary in the first half of the season. 

Her connections will be hoping she fares better than Pretty Pollyanna, who won the Duchess Of Cambridge and Prix Morny (after being beaten at Royal Ascot) in 2018 before finishing fourth in the Cheveley Park when 6-4. Like Senorita Bonita, she lined up rated 117.

Date: September 5: Course: Kempton Park. Distance: 6f. 

Race: William Hill Sirenia Stakes. Runners: 8. 

What happened? 1 Moonrise. 

Win time: 72sec – 0.10sec quicker than RaceiQ Par. 

Moonrise has been overlooked in the build-up, but she pulled almost four lengths clear when scooping this Group Three prize. 

Oisin Murphy dashed her to the front from a wide draw and then dabbed on the brakes for a couple of furlongs before turning the screw. 

She was quickest, or almost quickest, through each of the final four furlongs. That was more than enough to guarantee a smooth success after her swift start. 

Moonrise had previously won at Kempton and Ascot, with her only defeat being when runner-up in the Windsor Castle when she made most before being worn down close home. 

Dominating this field will not be easy, although Snowing (a stablemate of Sun Goddess) is likely to do the early donkey work.

Date: September 13: Course: The Curragh. Distance: 7f. 

Race: Moyglare Stud Stakes. Runners: 6. 

What happened? 1 Sun Goddess. 6 Controlla. 

Win time: 87.68sec – 0.37sec slower than the RaceiQ Par. 

Last, but not least, Sun Goddess’s 6½-length demolition job in the Moyglare this month. That’s taken her winnings beyond £800,000 and the imposing daughter of Sioux Nation promises to make some broodmare when the time comes. The £120,000 paid for her at Goffs just over a year ago was a great bit of business. 

She was again a little slow away from the stalls, which is becoming a bit of a habit, and her first four furlongs did not stand out from the crowd. 

However, from then on, it was a one-sided contest with the long-striding Sun Goddess being quickest in each of the final three furlongs, reeling off splits of 12.06sec, 11.44sec and 12.48sec. Nothing could get close to that. 

The runner-up, Green Empress, had won the Debutante Stakes in her previous race, having got much closer to the winner in the Airlie Stud Stakes. 

On the downside, the winning time was nothing out of the ordinary, although marginally quicker than the National Stakes later in the afternoon.

SUN GODDESS (6-4): She’s already achieved so much, but her busy schedule in a niggle, as is the combination of 6f and likely fast ground on the Rowley Mile. She she can miss a beat at the start and is likely to try and pounce late. 

SENORITA BONITA (7-4): Was in the right place at the right time in the Duchess Of Cambridge, but her Prix Morny success was hard to quibble with. 

LIBERTANGO (4-1): Beat Sun Goddess fair and square in the Albany and had to do things the hard way in the Lowther. Her defeat at the hands of Senorita Bonita in between can be excused and she looks overpriced. 

ALWAYSANANGEL (12-1): She was the eye-catcher in the Duchess Of Cambridge and has since been a smooth winner. Seriously underestimated in the market with William Buick pencilled in for the ride, although she does have Friday’s Rockfel as an alternative. 

STAR OF STATE (14-1): Hard to see how she can turn the tables on Libertango, who mastered her in the Lowther. Has since won a valuable Sales’ race at The Curragh. 

MOONRISE (20-1): Has done little wrong and was a decisive winner last time but needs more in this company. 

SNOWING (66-1): Almost certainly in here to ensure honest fractions for Sun Goddess, who will not want a muddling gallop dropping back in trip. That will suit others, too. 

CONTROLLA (100-1): Is another pace angle, but out of her depth.