Juvenile Watch: 7-1 Champions Day tip and Newmarket review

As the season draws to a close I'm always hopeful that some clear form lines and a hierarchy start to appear in the juvenile division. Often that's not the case, but this year I think we have a pretty clear picture of the potential stars as we head towards winter. Newmarket last weekend certainly delivered some strong clues.

As the season draws to a close I'm always hopeful that some clear form lines and a hierarchy start to appear in the juvenile division. Often that's not the case, but this year I think we have a pretty clear picture of the potential stars as we head towards winter. Newmarket last weekend certainly delivered some strong clues. It was far from a note-perfect display at Newmarket on Friday but Musical Times, in my book, heads in to the winter break with her reputation bolstered.

Having maintained her unbeaten record with an impressive victory in the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster, the Charlie Appleby-trained filly arrived with an obvious chance. Indeed, my thoughts beforehand were that she was comfortably the best filly in the race, although that was equally reflected in a price which offered little appeal from a betting perspective.

However, even allowing for those lofty expectations, the manner of her victory was hugely impressive.

With the field gravitating towards the stands’ rail, William Buick found himself in an increasingly difficult position, trapped behind horses with seemingly nowhere to go. On more than one occasion Musical Times appeared ready to make her challenge, only for the gaps to close and her momentum to be checked.

It is rare to see Buick looking quite so anxious in the saddle, and there was a point approaching the final furlong when defeat looked a distinct possibility. Yet, once finally presented with sufficient daylight, Musical Times showed a tremendous change of gear to take command inside the final 110 yards and ultimately win with a degree of comfort.

For me, this was the defining aspect of her performance. Plenty of talented juveniles can look impressive when enjoying an uninterrupted passage, but to overcome such significant traffic problems and still win so convincingly marks her down as something out of the ordinary, with a temperament that is clearly improving with each start.

This was no more obviously showcased by the way she relaxed throughout the contest, in contrast to her demeanour on debut, and this mannerism will stand her in good stead when tackling longer distances next season. Her pedigree certainly offers encouragement in that respect, with her dam having won the Cheshire Oaks.

Appleby has already indicated that a racecourse gallop rather than a conventional trial is the likely preparation for the 1,000 Guineas, a route he has used with great success in previous years.

Granted a trouble-free passage through her winter break, Musical Times looks very much the one they all have to beat at Newmarket next May. More importantly, there is every reason to believe we have yet to see the best of her.

There was always a fascinating clash of form lines in this year’s Dewhurst Stakes, with the proven seven-furlong ability of Desert Castle pitched against the considerable stamina reserves of Darkness Falls, who was dropping back two furlongs having impressed over nine in the Golden Fleece at Leopardstown.

My thoughts beforehand were that the drop in trip might just leave Darkness Falls vulnerable against a colt with the speed and experience of Desert Castle. However, the Aidan O’Brien-trained son of Camelot answered that question emphatically, showing sufficient pace to hold his position before his stamina became the decisive factor in the closing stages.

Having raced prominently throughout, Darkness Falls took a narrow advantage approaching the two-furlong marker, but was soon challenged by Desert Castle, who looked a serious threat entering the final furlong. Yet, despite the runner-up battling determinedly, Darkness Falls always appeared to have his measure, finding enough in the final half-furlong to prevail by a neck.

For me, this was a performance of considerable merit. It is unusual enough for a juvenile to win a Group 1 over nine furlongs before dropping back to seven, let alone to do so against a rival of Desert Castle’s quality. That Darkness Falls managed it so convincingly in tactical terms marks him down as a colt of exceptional versatility.

There is little doubt that both horses will develop into better three-year-olds. Desert Castle remains a big, scopey individual who is still learning his trade, and he lost absolutely nothing in defeat. However, it is difficult to envisage him reversing the form when they meet again over the more demanding mile of the 2,000 Guineas.

Perhaps the strongest argument in his favour is that Charlie Appleby has enjoyed greater success in recent seasons preparing his leading Classic contenders for Newmarket in May than O’Brien. Even so, with the possibility of a Triple Crown campaign already being discussed, it is difficult to imagine Darkness Falls arriving at the Guineas anything other than fully primed.

The Triple Crown talk is undoubtedly ambitious, but there is something particularly appealing about a son of Camelot attempting to achieve what his sire so narrowly failed to accomplish.

For now, Darkness Falls looks the outstanding candidate for the 2,000 Guineas, in a season where the juvenile fillies have been the primary source of quality it's exciting that we have two such talented colts to look forward to. Let's hope they both winter well and without any setbacks.

There looks to be a degree of value in Saturday’s six-furlong British Champions Day Two-Year-Old Conditions Stakes at Ascot, where Satellite Of Love makes plenty of appeal at around 7-1.

The progressive juvenile arrives on the back of a Listed success at Redcar, a performance which was considerably better than the official winning margin of a length and a quarter would suggest.

Having raced prominently from the outset, Satellite Of Love was always travelling with plenty of purpose and found himself in front some way from home. Indeed, he arguably had too much pace for his own good, taking over earlier than ideal before briefly becoming unbalanced inside the final furlong.

Although he continued to find enough under Paul Mulrennan, there was a distinct impression that he was doing little more than necessary once establishing his advantage. He certainly appeared to idle late on, and I would be inclined to upgrade the performance rather than take the bare form at face value.

Previously, he had finished runner-up to Night In Vegas in a valuable sales race at Doncaster, form which has subsequently received a boost. Crucially, Satellite Of Love was conceding 5lb to that rival. Now off level-weights he should have little trouble in reversing that form.

Neither do the remaining runners appear to set an insurmountable standard. The Godolphin pair certainly command respect, while Arapaho Gold has something to prove following a disappointing effort in the Mill Reef Stakes. To my eye he looked like a colt who might benefit from a break after that performance, and it remains to be seen whether he can bounce back quickly enough to make his presence felt.

Satellite Of Love has the tactical speed to hold a prominent position, indeed a stronger pace should benefit him, and crucially is improving with each start. 

At around 7-1, he looks a solid each-way proposition in a contest which appears more open than the market suggests.