Saturday ante-post tips: 33-1, 16-1 and 12-1 Ascot selections

Two of the first three home in last season’s inaugural Champions Day Two-Year-Old Conditions Stakes won by Mission Central already had a Group-race win to their name, while the fourth had a runner-up effort in a Group Two amongst his numerous runs. It was the winner’s sixth outing of the year, the hardy runner-up's 11th, and the third horse’s fifth. With no penalties for wins earlier in the season, it looks another race that could be ripe for superstars to plunder at some point, but I’m not sure that’s the case just yet. 

The message seems to be that you need a touch of class and plenty of experience, which means that the sales race regulars NIGHT IN VEGAS and Satellite Of Love could both be overpriced at 8-1. I’d be happy enough to dutch the pair at 7-2, but think the Eve Johnson Houghton runner will confirm the form. 

The last-named has a 5 lb pull for a half-length defeat at Doncaster last month, so there’s certainly a strong case to be made for him turning the tables having been impressive since in Redcar’s Two Year Old Trophy. Revels, who was fourth behind Nabati on his previous start in the Mill Reef, was beaten a similar one and a quarter lengths into second at Redcar, so the form ties in nicely with the Group Two level of the Newbury race. 

His only ‘flop’ came when fifth behind Sun Goddess at York, but he was given a much more passive ride that day which didn’t make best use of his main asset: natural pace. Hopefully Rossa Ryan takes him forward here as he did on Town Moor. 

But Night In Vegas raced on the wing for a long way before crossing over at Newmarket last time, so I think that performance can be upgraded, and it feels like he has improved again; perhaps enough to cover that 5 lb swing, especially having shown his effectiveness for this track when a closing fifth – coming from much further back than most of those who finished ahead of him - in the Coventry back in June. 

Nabati’s stablemate Inner City Blues heads the betting from Arapaho Gold (third to Nabati at Newbury under a 3 lb penalty), but he’s short enough after his underwhelming run in the Middle Park, while I’m not sure this stiff finish will be a perfect match for Arapaho Gold’s keenness. 

If there’s another that’s overpriced, I think it’s 25-1 chance Adaay of Scarlett who has been campaigned in a similarly aggressive manner to the yard’s Ardisia who was second last year. This course winner has a bit more class (three runner-up efforts in Group Twos), holds several of these on his Coventry second, and travelled well for a long way when eventually a fading sixth in the Mill Reef. But he’s since had a gelding operation, which could go either way in terms of his next run.

The Qatar Racing British Champions Long Distance Cup has been something of a haven for favourite backers in recent years, with six of the last nine being won by horses priced either side of the even-money mark. Clearly, this could occur again, with Scandinavia likely to relish this longer run-in as he bids to reverse Longchamp form with Caballo De Mer, but both had tough races there along with the third Queenstown who made most of the running. 

One of the anomalies in terms of recent winners, however, was the first of Trueshan’s wins as a four-year-old in 2020 in a renewal where favourite Stradivarius found the race coming too quickly after his seventh-placed finish in the Arc. 

And, with William Buick an interesting provisional jockey booking, I’m hopeful that Trueshan’s trainer Alan King takes the plunge with his Ebor winner DAIQUIRI BAY, who went seven places better than his old stablemate - admittedly from a 4 lb lower mark - when landing the York staying handicap. 

Trueshan had a run at Salisbury in-between, whereas Daiquiri Bay has been given a break since completing a hat-trick of big handicap wins this season which includes a win here at the Royal meeting. Given time to mature as a four-year-old, he has improved significantly since going up in distance, and I think there’s a lot more to come over two miles. 

Gregory has enjoyed himself in listed company since returning from the sidelines, while St Leger winner Highwayman is respected, but I think there might be as much merit in Daiquiri Bay’s handicap form and – with the hope that his trainer doesn’t decide to draw stumps for the season or head to the Prix Royal-Oak instead – he looks the value call at 16-1. 

Last year’s winner Powerful Glory made history when taking the Qatar Racing British Champions Sprint Stakes at 200-1, with QEII winner Cicero’s Gift 100-1 success hot on his heels, which underlines that this is a meeting where the unbeatable get beaten. 

To all intents and purposes, Jubilee Stakes and Sprint Cup winner Almeraq should enjoy another success, but I think the margin of his win at Haydock was exaggerated by the very testing ground and the very patient ride given to him by Tom Marquand. 

PABORUS was having his first start over six furlongs when beating Marvelman in the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle back in June, and having weakened late on back up in trip in the City Of York Stakes, it was no surprise to see him back over this distance when runner-up at Haydock. 

Danny Tudhope – riding the horse for the first time – had him more prominent than the winner in quite a well-run race in the conditions, and he travelled well for a long way before the winner showed a better turn of foot. 

However, he beat the rest by a mile, so for me this was a clear career-best effort. I think Ascot’s stiff finish will suit his racing style, as will the return to this quicker ground, and he’s the strongest each-way candidate - as well as no forlorn hope to beat the favourite - at double-figure prices.  

Clearly, Kalpana is the one to beat at her favourite track if showing up anywhere near her best in the Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, a race she won last year. She has since added three more victories, including in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (which took her record here to 3-1-2-1-2-1), and she ran better than I expected when a fine fifth in the Arc at the start of this month. 

But it’s been a bruising season for Andrew Balding’s stable star, and it wouldn’t be a big surprise to me if this proved to be one race too far. 

It wouldn’t be a big shock, either, were the Francis-Henri Graffard-trained Tajlina to show improved form now up in trip at a track that should suit, and her trainer has done extremely well here. 

But I’ve been impressed with COEDANA’s improvement since being faced with a stiff finish over this trip. She wasn't beaten far in a German Group One over 10 furlongs in July, form franked in no uncertain style by the winner Hotazhell following up in the Irish Champion, and then she again showed her strength at the finish when successfully giving 7 lb to Inis Mor (placed in the French and Irish Oaks) at Newmarket last time. 

This is a step back up in class, but she is unbeaten in two starts under Connor Beasley, is a filly with lots of physical scope for further improvement, and I think her best price of 33-1 significantly underestimates her chance in a division that looks wide open should Kalpana underperform. 

NIGHT IN VEGAS win at 8-1 with Ladbrokes and Coral, 7-1 general

DAIQUIRI BAY win at 16-1 with bet365, 14-1 general

PABORUS each-way at 12-1 with William Hill, 11-1 with Betway, 10-1 with bet365

COEDANA each-way at 33-1 William Hill, 25-1 with bet365 and Unibet