1 A sideshow on Qatar Racing British Champions Day will be the battle for the trainers’ championship between Aidan O’Brien, the multiple champion, and Andrew Balding, who is seeking a first title. The race goes on until the end of the year but events on Saturday will be crucial.
At the start of play on Monday, Balding led by £82,030 but he must be fearing the worse. He only has five cards to play, with Kalpana his outstanding candidate in the Fillies & Mares (first prize £283,550). O’Brien has 16 possible runners and seems certain to be represented in all bar the Sprint and Balmoral. His biggest possible players look to be Scandinavia in the Long Distance Cup (£283,550), Constitution River in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (£623,810) Gstaad in the Champion Stakes (£737,230) and Minnie Hauk in the Fillies & Mares (first prize £283,550).
2 Maybe Balding should spend this week humming Don't Stop Believin' by Journey. After all, since Magical’s victory in the 2019 Champion Stakes, O’Brien has had 44 runners in the Group races on Champions Day but had only one winner, namely Kyprios at 8-11 in the 2024 Long Distance Cup. If you had blindly put £1 on all of his 103 runners at the meeting, you would be losing about £67.
3 Let’s sprinkle some RaceiQ on the battle. O’Brien’s Actual versus Expected at Ascot in the past year is 1.27 (eight winners from 46 runners), which is better than his overall A/E of 0.97. Balding’s A/E at Ascot is 1.45 (ten winners from 74 runners) and his overall A/E is 1.07. Or, to put it another way, O’Brien’s Ascot runners have exceeded market expectations by 27% over the past 12 months, while Balding’s have overachieved by 45%.
4 It looks like O’Brien’s principal hopes in the QIPCO Champion Stakes will be Gstaad and Hawk Mountain. The Ballydoyle supremo has had many wonderful middle-distance colts since the start of the century, but none have landed the ten-furlong showpiece, at either Newmarket or Ascot. His 27 previous male challengers have included Oratorio, Eagle Mountain, Fame And Glory, So You Think, Ruler Of The World, Highland Reel, Serpentine, Japan, Los Angeles and Delacroix. His sole winner of the race has been a filly, Magical, who won at Evens in 2019. The record of his colts and entire horses in the race reads 040954209605239837474949040, but his fillies have fared much better, finishing 2213.
5 The Champion Stakes looks like featuring three horses officially rated 125 or higher: Ombudsman (132), Calandagan (130) and Gstaad (125). Since the first Champions Day, in 2011, there have been only four races where at least three of the runners have been rated 125 or higher. The first was the 2011 Champion Stakes, which featured Nathaniel (128), So You Think (126), Cirrus Des Aigles (125) and Twice Over (125). The second was the 2012 edition when Frankel (140), Cirrus Des Aigles (130) and Nathaniel (126) took part. The third was the 2021 renewal when Mishriff (127), Adayar (127) and Addeybb (125) lined up, while the fourth was 12 months ago when Ombudsman (128), Delacroix (126) and Calandagan (126) lined up.
6 On the subject of ratings, Anmaat became the lowest-rated Champion Stakes winner (at Ascot) two years ago, when he lined up rated 115. Going into the race, the other winners have been rated 125, 140, 124, 117, 120, 127, 122, 125, 122, 122, 117, 120, 121 and 125.
The pause that refreshes
7 Calandagan is on course to run in the Champion Stakes after being absent for 84 days, but fresh can be best. Farhh won the 2013 edition after 154 days off (his only previous run that year came when landing the Lockinge) and Cracksman romped home after 122 days off. But when it comes to returning heroes, look no further than Rite Of Passage, who had been off a mammoth 510 days before scooping the Long Distance Cup in 2012.
8 The race that has had the most overall depth on Champions Day? There are several candidates but surely none can match the Champion Stakes in 2011 when seven of the 12 runners were Group One winners. French raider Cirrus Des Aigles upstaged them all, winning at the highest level for the first time. He would finish runner-up in the next two renewals, too, before finishing fifth in 2014.
9 Fourteen years have passed since Frankel signed off his perfect career with victory in the Champion Stakes. His brother, Noble Mission, won the same race in 2014, and his son, Cracksman, triumphed in the 2017 and 2018 renewals. However, Cracksman remains Frankel’s only winner at the meeting as a sire. His runners on Saturday could be Opportunity (Long Distance Cup), Believed, Minnie Hauk (Fillies & Mares), Gavriel,Spoken Truth and Theoryofeverything (Balmoral).
10 Regarding stallions, Galileo predictably leads the way. He has sired the winners of ten races since 2011: Long Distance Cup (3), Champion Stakes (3), Fillies (2), QEII (2), He’s had the winner of every race apart from the Sprint. Dark Angel has sired five winners, while Dubawi, Pivotal and Sea The Stars have sired four.
11 Billy Loughnane will be crowned champion jockey on Saturday, having been in pole position most of the season. The 20-year-old has had five rides on Champions Day and the closest he has come to a winner was when second on Swingalong in the 2024 Sprint. His A/E at Ascot in the last year is an impressive 1.5 (eight winners from 48 rides).
The record of favourites
12 Twenty-seven favourites and two joint-favourites have obliged for punters since 2011. At least one has won every year, barring 2013. But 32 market leaders chalked up at 2-1 or shorter have been defeated, including four last year (Words Of Truth 11-10, Field Of Gold 13-8, Ombudsman 13-8 and Lazzat 2001).
13 Odds-on favourites? Six have won since 2011 (Frankel twice, Order Of St George, Cracksman, Kyprios and Trawlerman) and five have lost (Order Of St George, Stradivarius, Palace Pier, Snowfall and Baaeed). Order Of St George, below, is the only horse to win and lose when odds-on. None of the ante-post favourites are odds-on at this point, although Almeraq is no bigger than 11-10 for the Sprint.
14 The Arc meeting falls close to Champions Day – it usually follows 13 or 14 days later. However, running at Longchamp has proved no barrier to winning at Ascot. Fifteen runners at the Arc meeting have gone on to win on Champions Day – including Anmaat (40-1) two years ago, and Art Power (40/1) and Poptronic (22/1) the year before that, when admittedly there was an extra week to recover. A total of 24 winners on Champions Day have had their previous outing in France, so look for clues from abroad.
15 Rayif, trained by Francis Graffard, seems likely to try and enhance the fine record of French-trained runners in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Facteur Cheval was runner-up for them two years ago, after Big Rock and Facteur Cheval had given them a 1-2 in 2024, meaning they’ve now had four winners and three runners-up from just 16 runners. There have been nine British-trained runners from 126 runners. Ten victors won on their previous start, six in Group One company.
16 Joseph O’Brien, George Boughey, Clive Cox, Sir Mark Prescott, Kevin Ryan and Ed Walker are among notable trainers yet to strike on the big day. Charlie Appleby surprisingly has only one on the board, having had just nine runners at the meeting.
Class acts defeated
17 Baaeed (rated 135 in 2022); Crystal Ocean (129 in 2018), Nathaniel (128 in 2011) and Ombudsman (128 in 2025) have been the highest-rated runners to have returned home to their respective stables (all in Newmarket) defeated. Baaeed was simply below his imperious best; Crystal Ocean had the misfortune to bump into a relentless Cracksman; Nathaniel was in a deep race; and Ombudsman last year found Calandagan too hot to handle.
18 The winners of the Fillies & Mares Stakes in 2021 and 2022 had finished last in their previous race. Emily Upjohn trailed home in the King George, as did Eshaada in the Yorkshire Oaks. And three years ago, Poptronic was only ninth of 14 in the Qatar Prix de Royallieu.
19 Nineteen of the horses who have won or been second in the Fillies & Mares have been officially rated between 111 and 115, including last year’s runner-up Estrange (112). No Fillies & Mares winner had been rated higher than 116 before Kalpana (122) struck 12 months ago. This year, she will line up rated 125.
20 The Fillies & Mares has never been contested by more than 14 runners, but seven of the 15 winners have been drawn in either stall 10, 11 or 12. By contrast, horses drawn in stalls 1, 3, 5, and 6 have yet to win.
Solow has been among the silver brigade to strike gold
21 Charyn became the ninth grey winner on Champions Day in 2024, although I’ve included King Of Steel, the 2023 Champion Stakes winner, who was officially roan. Shelir has been the biggest price, when springing an 80-1 shock in the Balmoral in 2022. Solow (2015), Librisa Breeze (2017), Persuasive (2017), Lord Glitters (2017), Roaring Lion (2018) and Art Power (2023) have been the others to prevail.
22 There are just two possible grey runners in the Group races on Saturday: Binhareer and Jasour in the Sprint. There are several in the Balmoral, including Indalo and Cash, but most are struggling to make the cut.
Headgear in the Sprint
23 A total of 49 horses have worn a form of headgear since the Sprint in 2011. None have won.
24 Do not be put off by runners who have had busy campaigns in the Sprint. Glen Shiel was having his eleventh run of the year when successful in 2020, while Maarek (tenth run of the year) and Gordon Lord Byron (ninth, having started the year in Australia) had also been in regular action. The 2023 winner, Art Power, was also having his ninth run of the year, having had two trips to Ireland and two runs in France along the way.
25 Seven winners of the six-furlong feature, since 2013, ran in the Sprint Cup at Haydock the previous month. Six of those seven were beaten at the Lancashire venue – the odd one out being Muhaarar in 2015.
26 The longest race on Champions Day, the Long Distance Cup. has provided the day’s most wide-margin winner, with Trueshan scoring by 7½ lengths in 2020. But it has also produced the tightest finishes: Royal Diamond won by a nose in 2013, as did Kew Gardens in 2019.
Three-year-olds struggle in the Cup
27 There have been 139 runners in the Long Distance Cup, all of them trained in Britain or Ireland. It’s evidently a tough race for three-year-olds to win, with none of the 21 runners from the Classic generation managing better than second. Big Orange, Stradivarius and Eldar Eldarov have been among those to come up short. Highwayman, the St Leger winner, above, will try and put that right.
28 Forgotten Rules had run only once on the Flat before his win in the 2014 edition, while Sheikhzayedroad (11/1) and Quest For More (9/1) dominated the 2016 renewal, having been separated by a nose in the Doncaster Cup the previous month. On Saturday, Caballo De Mar and Scandinavia could meet just a fortnight after being separated by a short neck in the Prix du Cadran.
29 Two British Classic winners, Frankel (2000 Guineas) and Dancing Rain (Oaks), ran at the first Champions Day and both triumphed, in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and Fillies & Mares respectively. However, since then, Classic victors have struggled with only Minding, Simple Verse and Kew Gardens being successful from 25 runners. The last-named gained his win a year after his St Leger triumph. It’s the winners of the 2000 Guineas who have found things tough going. Since Frankel, seven more winners of the race have run on Champions Day, often at short odds, and all have been beaten. British Classic winners in action this time are Scandinavia, Highwayman (both St Leger) and Minnie Hauk (Oaks)
30 John Gosden, who now trains in tandem with son Thady, has had 11 winners on Champions Day, more than anyone else. However, he didn’t find it a straightforward day to crack early on, as all 16 of his runners during the first four years were beaten.
31 Five of the past nine winners of the Balmoral had run in the 7f handicap at Ascot a fortnight earlier, although only Aldaary (2021) had won.
32 Aldaary was a trends buster in the Balmoral five years ago, being the only to win it carrying a penalty – from 21 who have tried. Seven of those defeated when carrying a penalty have been 6-1 or shorter, including 4-1 favourite Native Warrior last year and 2-1 favourite Sunray Major in 2021. Tribal Chief, Naval Light and Mr Swivell have 6lb penalties to carry this time.
33 Where do you want to be drawn in the Balmoral? Three winners since 2014 have been drawn in stall 4, while only two have been higher than 11. Crown Of Oaks won from stall 23 last year, with the next pair being drawn 2 and 1.
Balmoral taunts Gosden
Gosden has trained more Champions Day winners than anyone else, with his victors including Trawlerman, but the Balmoral has proved elusive.
34 Gosden could be forgiven for thinking he is jinxed in the Balmoral, in which he’s had 16 runners without being successful. He has fielded the runner-up on five occasions without winning it: Maverick Wave (2014), GM Hopkins (2015 and 2017), Remarkable (2016) and Lord North (2019), while Magical Morning was third three years ago in a running where the stable’s 2-1 favourite, Sunray Major, disappointed. He and his son, Thady, could be represented by several runners this time, including Gavriel, who was a close fourth in the Cambridgeshire last month.
35 RaceiQ reveals that the first four races in 2023 were all won by the horses fastest to 20mph. However, fast starts do not always lay the foundations for victory. None have broken quicker in the past three years than Mirsky, who got to 20mph in a rapid 1.89sec in the 2024 Balmoral. He was prominent a long way before fading to finish eighth.
36 There is a general view that Champions Day is always run on soft or heavy going. It’s a lazy assumption. The word “good” has featured in the going description six times, and the forecast suggests it again seems likely.
37 The first four editions of Champions Day passed by without Frankie Dettori having a winner, but he then chalked up 11 winners (from an overall 56 rides) – making him the most successful jockey at the meeting. Nine of his winners were for the Gosden camp, with Ralph Beckett (Kinross) and Roger Varian (King Of Steel) providing the others. However, those following him also had their share of disappointment. He was beaten on 16 favourites.
38 Ryan Moore has had more rides on Champions Day (67) than anyone else but had only five winners, and you would be losing £55 had you blindly put £1 on them all. Since 2019, he’s had one win (Kyprios at 8-11) from 28 rides, with a quarter of them being favourites. He missed last year’s meeting because of injury.
Thank you and goodnight
39 Sixteen horses have won at Champions Day and then been retired. The list is: Deacon Blues (2011), Frankel (2012), Rite Of Passage (2012), Sapphire (2012), Farhh (2013), Charm Spirit (2014), Noble Mission (2014), Muhaarar (2015), Persuasive (2017), Cracksman (2018), Donjuan Triumphant (2019), Kew Gardens (2019), King Of Change (2019), Star Catcher (2019), Bayside Boy (2022) and Poptronic (2023).
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